Naomi Osaka is a two-time champion at the US Open, but she will be facing a player who is somewhat of a giant killer and has no issues beating US Open champions at Flushing Meadows.
Osaka has won the US Open twice in her career so far, but both of those wins happened long ago. The first one came after a controversial match against Serena Williams. It was the match in which the American clashed with the umpire, Carlos Ramos, which was unfortunate for Osaka as it was her maiden Grand Slam trophy.
Her win was much less controversial in 2020. Things haven't been that smooth in New York since then, as her third-round exit in 2021 and a second-round exit in 2022 prove.
Osaka wasn't in the best headspace back then, so this year is the first one since 2022 that she feels like her former self again. Her level is not there yet, but fans will be curious to see how she performs.
Due to her ranking not being the best, Osaka didn't get a good draw. Her first opponent is Jelena Ostapenko, who is among the seeded players at the last major of the season.
She's a fascinating player with loads of talent but also very streaky. Her season totals of 34-19 in 2021, 37-22 in 2022, and 31-17 in 2023 prove that. She also has no issues beating former US Open champions, as she proved last year against Iga Swiatek. The Latvian is just a good player.
The two have only played once so far, in 2016 at the French Open. While Osaka did win that match, it means nothing for this upcoming matchup. What matters more is the style of play and current form.
Both are very aggressive baseliners who look to finish off points quickly. Osaka is probably the better hitter overall, but that's at her peak. She hasn't been playing at her peak this year, so hitting-wise, it's Ostapenko who is better right now.
She will probably finish most rallies on her terms, and that's a scary thought for her opponent. The crucial factor for Osaka in this matchup will be the serve.
The Latvian will punish the former World No. 1 severely for every slower second serve. She won't hit all of them, but she will hit plenty enough to make Osaka's life on the court miserable.
That's a problem for Osaka because, if we look at her Cincinnati Open performances, she didn't serve that well. She had a 46% first-serve hit percentage in both of her matches.
That's not good enough and will be a major problem against Ostapenko if it happens again. She's failed to hit the 50% mark in all four of her last matches, with the Paris Olympics against Kerber the last time she did so.
Overall, it's a matchup that will simply favor the player who plays better on said day.
| Jelena Ostapenko | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | H2H | 1 |
| 10 | Rank | 85 |
| 27 | Age | 26 |
| 29-15 | 2024 W/L | 18-15 |
| 371-224 | Career W/L | 283-163 |
What we've seen from both lately hasn't been inspiring. Both are capable of winning this matchup, but with Osaka's serving woes, Ostapenko seems to be the more logical side to back.
Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko to win in three sets.