Jannik Sinner has had a roller-coaster year in 2024, but he will finish the season at No. 1 in the rankings.
Sinner reached the World No. 1 rank for the first time during the French Open. He overtook Novak Djokovic after the Serbian withdrew from the tournament in Paris before the quarterfinal with a knee injury that had plagued him in previous rounds.
The 23-year-old earned that spot after a superb start to the season. Sinner won his maiden Grand Slam title by recovering from two sets down against Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open final before winning the Miami Open two months later.
After losing five-set battles in the French Open semifinal and Wimbledon quarterfinal, Sinner missed the Olympics with an illness before a significant story off the court broke about the Italian.
It was announced a few days before the US Open began that Sinner had twice tested positive for the banned substance clostebol during the Indian Wells Open that took place in March.
Sinner was cleared by the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA), which accepted his explanation that the substance entered his system accidentally via massages by his physiotherapist.
However, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) announced last month that it would appeal Sinner's case. The body did not dispute how the clostebol entered his system but argued he bore more fault for it happening.
Many felt Sinner's level would drop after the news of his doping case became public, but the opposite has happened. Sinner beat Taylor Fritz in the final to win his second Grand Slam title at the US Open.
The Italian was also the runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz in the China Open final. Alcaraz outlasted Sinner 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 after one of the most thrilling contests of the 2024 season.
Those results took Sinner closer to ending the year at No. 1, but he is now sure to finish the season at the top after Alcaraz was stunned by an inspired Tomas Machac at the 2024 Shanghai Masters.
That result, combined with Sinner beating Medvedev in Shanghai, means Alcaraz cannot realistically catch up to Sinner at No. 1 before the season ends in November.
Mathematically, Alcaraz could still overtake Sinner before the end of 2024 if he played every single week and accumulated 3,500 points from winning the ATP Finals, Paris Masters, and the ATP 500 and 250 tournaments that will be held during that period.
However, there is no possibility of Alcaraz doing that. The Paris Masters and ATP Finals are the only tournaments with ranking points he signed up to play. Alcaraz will feature in Rafael Nadal's last event at the Davis Cup, but no ranking points are awarded in that competition.
It would be particularly surprising if Alcaraz decided to play more tournaments since he has been vocal about the schedule being too lengthy and intense, admitting to not wanting to travel to some events in the past from burnout.
The Spaniard will enjoy some time off until the Paris Masters in a few weeks, but his hopes of catching Sinner at No. 1 before the end of the year are over.