It's a tricky question to answer because both players have actually played really well. The court does play into the strengths of each player, but somehow, it seems to me like Hurkacz is closer to winning.
He's been really strong lately with the Shanghai Masters win and has the more reliable serve, which will likely help. Auger-Aliassime's win over Holger Rune was impressive, but it mostly came because Rune played below his level.
Hurkacz had plenty of issues against Ugo Humbert but endured a tough match. Neither is playing at their peak, but they don't need to in order to win the ATP 500 in Basel.
The two have played three times so far, and Auger-Aliassime leads the H2H 2-1. The most recent match happened last year in Halle, and Hurkacz won it.
Auger-Aliassime won the previous meeting, but we haven't seen any matches this year. Hurkacz generally played a better year than Auger-Aliassime and enters this matchup as the favourite.
It's really simple why that is the case. For one, he's played much better recently and has a better serve which could come in handy. The Shanghai Masters went his way because of the serve and it's just a cheat code in these types of conditions.
Auger-Aliassime found a spark this week, but I don't it will be enough to power him past Hurkacz. I just don't see it because while he played well, he didn't play that well.
Neither did Hurkacz to be fair but he's got the more effective game if he doesn't have his best day. He also has a really good track record in finals, and the Canadian does not. And also, he's hunting a spot in Turin. A win would go a long way.
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz to win in two sets.