It's a really complicated question, but it can be tackled. Medvedev has played pretty well in recent weeks, but he was also beaten quite a few times. It's a strange thing with the Russian as his style of play is both his strength and also his weakness at times.
Take the Vienna Open final against Jannik Sinner. It's a match he could have won and should have won, but the loose style of play simply gave Sinner too many chances. I don't see him ever changing it because it's part of what works so well for him, but it can give him trouble against some of the best.
When it comes to Zverev, he was okay but looked quite tired. The German played a lot of tennis in recent weeks, and it's taken a toll. We'll see how well he recovers for Turin, but that could be a problem.
They played 17 times so far, which is an amazing number of matches. A couple of them happened this year, five to be precise. Four of them were won by Medvedev, but most of the matches were pretty close.
It's a fascinating matchup that could go either way, but Medvedev does seem closer to winning. They played twice in Turin, and Zverev won the more important match; the final.
I do think that Medvedev has a higher chance here. He is motivated to do better than last year and looks more energized than Zverev. I just can't move past Zverev looking really tired in recent weeks. I don't think he'll be able to push much, especially against Medvedev.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win in two sets.