Rafael Nadal will return to tennis in about three or so months, and according to Boris Becker, it will only happen if he thinks he can win.
This is kind of self-explanatory when you think about it because there is very little for Nadal in tennis if it's not winning. He obviously wants to win, as that's been the case his whole career, and just taking part to 'take part' isn't that appealing.
Uncle Toni kind of confirmed that by explaining how Nadal might even play beyond 2024 if he's really competitive. We don't know whether that will happen, but Becker agrees. He doesn't see Nadal coming back to the ATP Tour unless he's certain that he can still win, and he explained that for Eurosport.
Nadal is a role model for everyone. Millions of fans around the world want to see him back on the tennis court and not in the press conference, where he declares that he may not be able to play again. I also believe that he would never come back if he doesn't see a chance for himself. So, he's not coming back to play the first or second round, but to win tournaments.
If he's fully healthy, Nadal is clearly still good enough to win a few events. Paris is obviously a big chance for him, and the Olympic Games will also happen on those courts, so that's a double he could easily target if everything goes well. He's back to practicing, so he's getting there slowly but surely.
His ultimate goal will always be Paris, will possibly be the [2024] Olympics in Paris, which will be played on clay at Roland Garros. But for that he needs the legendary match practice, and he can only get that at tournaments.
So it's hard to get started. He'll get a bit of a kicking at first, but then we'll go into February - if he stays healthy - and March and April, when it's played on clay. Then he'll have had his ten, 15 matches - and I would never bet against Rafael Nadal on clay.