Medvedev and Alcaraz played some pretty good matches so far, and this is shaping up to be a rather interesting one as well. Medvedev was always known as a very good indoor player, but he's had some pretty bad luck at the ATP Finals in Turin.
He is looking to change that this year, but facing Alcaraz is never easy. He knows it best because he lost to him twice this year, and each loss was a painful one. The Spaniard not playing much recently due to injuries might benefit him, as might their most recent match.
The most recent meeting happened at the US Open, and it was a win for Medvedev, who got a bit lucky with a pretty average Alcaraz performance. He himself was great, but very few people actually thought he would beat Alcaraz.
It's because the Spaniard beat him comfortably twice earlier that year. So the H2H right now is 2-2, and the Russian seems more likely to win this one.
You might push back on that notion, but I truly do believe that the Russian is closer to winning. A couple of factors make me lean that way, but it's mostly Alcaraz not playing almost any indoor events before this one and him generally not playing that well recently.
Medvedev played a lot of matches and looked pretty good in most of them, even with the bad luck in Turin previously. He lost all three matches last year but played pretty well. Because of his familiarity and just better results recently, I'm picking him. After all, we never saw Alcaraz play in Turin.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets.