Novak Djokovic's shock third-round exit from the 2024 Italian Open could have significant consequences in his quest to remain the World No. 1 after Roland Garros.
Djokovic was knocked out of the Rome Masters in straight sets on Sunday by the high-flying Alejandro Tabilo, who secured the biggest win of his career. Tabilo, who moved up to 29th in the live rankings, will most likely earn a seeding spot in a Grand Slam for the first time later this month.
However, the defeat had dire consequences for Djokovic, who is being chased by Jannik Sinner at the top of the ATP rankings. With the Italian currently sidelined because of a hip injury, the Serbian could have increased the gap.
Could we have a new World No. 1 after Roland Garros?
The short answer is yes. We also need to emphasize that Djokovic will not control his destiny if Sinner plays. And here's how. A defeat in Rome means that Djokovic will be stuck at 9860 points for the next two weeks.
That is assuming he is not entering into any ATP tournaments at that time. Sinner, meanwhile, has 8770 points. He will not play before Roland Garros as he continues to recover from injury. In fact, Sinner has hinted that he might withdraw from the clay Slam if he is not fit to play.
Djokovic will drop 2000 points as the defending French Open champion when the tournament begins. His points tally will read 7860. Sinner will drop 45 points because he lost in the second round stage last year.
So, technically, the 22-year-old will be the World No. 1 in the live rankings with 8725 points when Roland Garros begins. If Sinner misses the second Grand Slam of the season, he won't add to that tally.
But on the brighter side, he might still be number one even without lifting a racket in Paris. The only way Djokovic can eclipse Sinner's tally of 8725 points is if he reaches the final. That way, he will have 9160 points. It's the only way Djokovic will be in charge of his own fate.
The other scenario is that Sinner recovers in time to play the French Open. Because the two players will seeded 1 and 2, they will be in opposite halves of the draw and can only meet in the final.
In that case, a runner-up finish will suffice for Sinner regardless of what Djokovic does. The 36-year-old can't earn more than 9860 points. If Sinner reaches the championship match, he will have 10025 points.
Djokovic can do the bare minimum, which is to reach the final (9160) and hope Sinner doesn't progress beyond the quarterfinal. If Djokovic wins the title (9860), then he must hope Sinner is not the runner-up.
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