This time last year, Carlos Alcaraz was still just a talented kid loaded with potential and a man many thought would one day win a few Grand Slams.
Fast forward 12 months and he has won titles galore, defeated both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal (at the same event), won his first Grand Slam and, for a while at least, sat on top of the ATP Rankings staring down at those who had been playing the game a lot longer than he.
It was a stellar tennis year the young Spaniard produced and now new data reveals he made his mark on more than just winners' trophies in 2022.
Part of the allure to Alcaraz is the swashbuckling way he plays the game, blending a mix of powerful groundstrokes with audacious drop shots that often find his opponent on the other side of the net gasping for air as the scramble to reach the ball before the second bounce. And it's his drop shot that new analytics show others on the ATP Tour have tried to replicate in the hunt for their own success.
A Golden Set Analytics For TDI study reveals on average, ATP players tend to deploy about 0.85 rally-ending forehand drop shots and 1.05 rally-ending backhand drop shots per match, winning about 51.5% of the points off the forehand drop shot and just 39.7% of the points off the backhand drop shot.
But this differs for Alcaraz. The Spanish teen employs the forehand drop shot a breezy 2.83 times per match, with an impressive win rate of 67.7%, and the backhand drop shot at a high 1.34 times per match, with a respectable win rate of 52.1%. This pattern is even more pronounced on clay, where Alcaraz hits 3.81 forehand drop shots per match and 1.84 backhand drop shots per match. The data also reveals Alcaraz strongly prefers the forehand drop shot.
Remarkably, once Alcaraz started making his way up to the Rankings during the 2021 season, players took notice and started using the forehand drop shot much more frequently. Players who already used the forehand drop shot often (e.g., Ruud, Fritz, Sinner, Tiafoe, and Bublik) turned to it even more. Yet, unlike Alcaraz, the increased use of the forehand drop shot after Alcaraz burst on the scene has not resulted in a high win percentage; in fact it has declined from 52.4% to 48.2%.
Ultimately, no other player in the Top 100 executes the forehand drop shot as well and as often as Alcaraz. The key to Alcaraz's success seems to be his timing of the use of the drop shot. It's clear the 19-year-old waits for his moment intelligently, usually using it when he has forced his opponent back behind the baseline with some fierce groundstrokes.
Other players can't be blamed for copying the Alcaraz style, considering his recent success. After months out with injury he returned to the tour with a win at the Argentina Open, a clay court tournament he frequently turned to the drop shot on his way to the title.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it, as they say.
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