Why Daniil Medvedev will not challenge for Grand Slams in 2026 despite strong season end
OpinionMonday, 03 November 2025 at 17:10
Daniil Medvedev played his best tennis in almost two years after the 2025 US Open, but that does not mean he will come close to winning Grand Slams in 2026.
Until this season, Medvedev was a serious contender at the hard-court majors. From 2021 to 2024, he reached at least one hard-court Grand Slam final, secured the 2021 US Open title, and also made the 2019 final at Flushing Meadows.
Medvedev's Grand Slam results in 2025 were terrible before he enjoyed a resurgence in the season's closing weeks. However, fans should not think it will make him a contender for next year's majors.
Recapping Medvedev's season
The 21-time ATP title winner's only Grand Slam victory was in the 2025 Australian Open opening round against Kasidit Samrej. He stunningly lost four consecutive times after that, including twice against Benjamin Bonzi at this year's Wimbledon and US Opens.
That made it Medvedev's worst year at the Majors since 2017. The 29-year-old only reached one final from the season's start until his exit at the US Open, which ended in a loss to Alexander Bublik at the 2025 Halle Open.
Medvedev and Gilles Cervara, who had worked together since 2017, parted ways after the US Open. They were replaced by Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzke, who swiftly made a positive difference.
After semifinal runs in Beijing and Shanghai, Medvedev won his first title in over two years at the 2025 Almaty Open. A quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev at the 2025 Paris Masters was his last of the season. He withdrew from the 2025 Moselle Open.
Although Medvedev could have a better year in 2026 after how he finished this season, there are three reasons to believe it will not be the catalyst for Grand Slam challenges next year.
Medvedev's terrible recent record against Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner remains unchanged
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have dominated men's tennis since the start of 2024, splitting the last eight Grand Slams. Medvedev's record against them has made winning Grand Slams almost impossible.
The six-time Major finalist has lost eight of his last nine meetings against Sinner, with the only win coming at the 2024 Wimbledon Championships, when the Italian struggled physically. His previous four matches against Alcaraz ended in defeat.
Medvedev did not test himself against either man during his better spell after the US Open. With 24-year-old Sinner and 22-year-old Alcaraz almost sure to keep improving, challenging them will be tough.
Alcaraz does not believe he is near his prime yet. At 29, Medvedev can still make enhancements, but improving enough to compete against Alcaraz and Sinner on the most significant stages will likely be too difficult.
Medvedev's improved results must be put into context
Although Medvedev deserves considerable credit for raising his level after Johansson and Goetzke's appointments, the recent results do not indicate that he is ready to challenge for Grand Slams.
Semifinal placings at the Masters 1000 events in Shanghai and Paris were good runs, but winning the title or at least losing in the final would have made a more significant statement that the old Daniil Medvedev is back.
Similarly, ending his title drought at the Almaty Open, an ATP 250 event, was welcome. However, the brutal reality is that the level he reached to narrowly beat Corentin Moutet in the final would be nowhere close to good enough against Sinner and Alcaraz.
The evidence is not yet strong enough to be confident about Medvedev reaching the top again. Had he won a Masters 1000 title, especially against Sinner in the recent Paris Masters final, that would have been an entirely different story.
The holes in Medvedev's game and difficulties created by balls used are not going away
Medvedev's period at the top, which ended after losing the 2024 Australian Open final against Sinner, was so impressive because he achieved it despite not possessing overwhelming power from the baseline.
The former US Open winner overachieved during that time, which occurred before Alcaraz and Sinner began dominating men's tennis. His lack of firepower is now an even more significant barrier to success.
Medvedev not being a formidable ball-striker has been more exposed because of the balls used during the past few years. He has repeatedly complained about them fluffing up and swiftly becoming slow, and says that it favors Alcaraz and Sinner.
The former world No. 1 found an unlikely ally in Alexander Zverev, who also dislikes the balls used and recently argued that courts are deliberately being slowed to benefit Alcaraz and Sinner.
Nothing suggests that the balls will be changed anytime soon. That, combined with none of the Grand Slams having particularly fast courts, will make it challenging for Medvedev to win a Major, no matter how well he plays.
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