Why Carlos Alcaraz will have a better 2026 than Jannik Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have dominated the ATP Tour for two years, but there are reasons to believe the Spaniard will be more successful in 2026.

The pair have won every Grand Slam since the start of 2024, splitting them evenly. They had a very close battle for the 2025 year-end No. 1 ranking, which Alcaraz narrowly won after getting three group-stage victories at the 2025 ATP Finals.

If trends continue, Alcaraz and Sinner will dominate men's tennis on an equal footing in 2026, but this article provides three reasons why the six-time Grand Slam champion is set to enjoy a better upcoming season.

Sinner's level over the past two years has been incredible, drawing comparisons with Novak Djokovic in his prime for its relentlessness and efficiency in matches. The four-time Grand Slam champion deserves the credit he has received.

However, Alcaraz's peak level is better than Sinner's. He possesses a complete game with more variety than any player can stop when it clicks, which is why many consider him the most talented young player in tennis history.

The most evident recent example against Sinner was the 2024 US Open final. Alcaraz utterly dominated in a 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 success, with the set he lost only occurring when his level momentarily dropped.

In Sinner's four-set 2025 Wimbledon final triumph over Alcaraz, the 22-year-old was far below his best. That should not take credit away from the Italian's very good performance, but he is more likely to need a below-par Alcaraz to triumph.

The year-end No. 1's incredible recent consistency shows how he is reaching his best more often. Alcaraz reached nine consecutive finals before his run was ended by Cameron Norrie at the 2025 Paris Masters, an event where he usually struggles.

He used to be criticized for lacking consistency, but no one could accuse Alcaraz of that in recent months. The Spaniard is more mature than in the past few years, and I think he will retain a persistently high level in 2026, creating a problem for Sinner.

Despite Sinner being more consistent than Alcaraz from the start of 2024 until the 2025 clay-court swing, he mostly struggled against his rival. That included five consecutive defeats until the streak was broken at Wimbledon.

After losing the US Open final, Sinner had fallen to Alcaraz in seven of their previous eight ATP matches. That reinforces the reality that Alcaraz was below his best in the Wimbledon final, which was still relatively close.

The two-time Roland Garros champion finds indoor courts most challenging, and Sinner has been dominant in those conditions. However, Alcaraz's dominant US Open final triumph was played with the Arthur Ashe Stadium roof closed.

Alcaraz also could have beaten Sinner in the showpiece match at the ATP Finals. He was beaten 6-7, 5-7, but held a set point in the opener and also created several good opportunities in the second before some uncharacteristic misses.

Although superb achievements, I do not think Sinner's Wimbledon and ATP Finals triumphs indicate a shift in the Italian's favor. If anything, Alcaraz beating him with the roof closed at the US Open and coming close at the ATP Finals will give him additional confidence.

Alcaraz's better head-to-head record and the four Grand Slams being played outdoors unless there is rain, which suits the Spaniard more, can give the increasingly consistent young star the edge over Sinner in 2026.

Sinner's terrific record over the past two years does not alter the fact that his body sometimes lets him down. The 24-year-old has been prone to cramping in hot and humid conditions, which could hinder his chances in 2026.

His 2025 Cincinnati Open final with Alcaraz ended prematurely after five games. The world No. 2's feeling unwell was almost certainly caused by the brutally hot conditions, something his rival was not having an issue with.

The most recent example occurred at the 2025 Shanghai Masters. After a match filled with several lengthy rallies in very humid conditions against Tallon Griekspoor, Sinner retired because he could barely walk from cramping.

Interestingly, Sinner seemed to be making physical progress under Marco Panichi and Ulises Badio, both of whom had worked with Novak Djokovic. He used his three-month doping ban until a few days before the 2025 Italian Open to do physical work.

Tennis fans worldwide were stunned when Sinner fired them and reinstated Umberto Ferrara, one of those who played a role in his positive doping tests at the 2024 Indian Wells Open, leading to the three-month suspension.

Alcaraz has become much stronger physically over the past few years. Question marks exist about whether Sinner can avoid consistent cramping and illness if he plays a full season. The three-month suspension probably helped him in 2025.