Swiatek Leads Win Rate & Aggregate Head-To-Head Against Top 8 At WTA Finals

Swiatek Leads Win Rate & Aggregate Head-To-Head Against Top 8 At WTA Finals

by Nurein Ahmed

Last updated

World No. 2 Iga Swiatek has a higher winning rate this season than the rest of the world's Top 8 in the WTA Race ahead of the 2023 WTA Finals.

In addition, Swiatek has a better aggregate head-to-head record against the same club, which could give her a psychological edge in the tournament that will kick off on Sunday, October 29. Swiatek has never won the prestigious season finale, but this is a very good chance to break that barren run.

The Pole was named the 2022 WTA Player of the Year after an outstanding season saw her clinch two of the four Grand Slams along with many other big trophies at the WTA 1000 level. While her 2023 season doesn't quite stack up in terms of trophies, her output has been excellent.

Testament to this, Swiatek has won the most matches on tour this year, with 60 from 70 matches. That translates to a tour-leading 85.7% win rate. Only Aryna Sabalenka has recorded an 80%+ season among the world's Top 8 who will be playing at the WTA Finals.

The 22-year-old also leads in the title count in singles competition, with five, after bagging the final WTA 1000 title at the China Open to pull clear of Coco Gauff. She has suffered the fewest losses too. Should she clinch the title in Cancun, and reclaim the No. 1 ranking, it is tough to dispute that she's been the best player this season.

Swiatek and Sabalenka are the only players with a positive aggregate head-to-head record (Swiatek is 27-15, Sabalenka 27-19). No wonder they're the top favorites for the crown in Mexico. Swiatek, however, has fared better in direct matches against the Belarusian winning five of their eight meetings.

But Swiatek has a losing record against Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari (replaced Karolina Muchova). In fact, the Kazakh is the only player to have beaten Swiatek multiple times this season and is one of five players with 40 or more wins on tour in 2023. If there is one player in the field that she needs to be wary of, it is Rybakina.

Sabalenka can't meet Swiatek in the group phase, and she'll be hoping to avoid Coco Gauff who beat her in the US Open final last month. Those two (Swiatek and Gauff) are the only players with a positive head-to-head record against the world No. 1.

So Sabalenka will fancy her chances against the rest of the field, having won at least four matches against each of Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Ons Jabeur, Marketa Vondrousova, and Maria Sakkari.

Jessica Pegula is the player with the worst head-to-head record against the Top 8 in the race. In 35 matches against the players competing in Cancun, Pegula is 14-21. Something about Sabalenka's power unsettles the American. She has lost four of the five matches in the series.

Marketa Vondrousova has lost the joint fewest matches in total against the qualified players in Cancun, along with Rybakina (13). But she has played the fewest matches against them (22). Overall, she has a winning record against just one opponent in the field - Ons Jabeur. The Czech does her best work when the odds are stacked against her, as evidenced by her Wimbledon success in July. Write her off at your own peril.


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