A fascinating matchup will unfold at the 2024 China Open in Beijing as the US Open runner-up, Jessica Pegula, will take on the resurging former World No. 2, Paula Badosa.
Both players have been among the best in the world over the past months. Badosa has gradually worked her way back to a high level of tennis, delivering notable performances at several events.
She captured the Citi Open trophy in a throwback performance, followed by a vintage run at the US Open. Pegula has not been any less impressive during this time; she won the Canadian Open, which is a WTA 1000 event.
She then reached the final of the Cincinnati Open, in which she lost to Aryna Sabalenka, and made it to the US Open final, in which she faced Sabalenka again. Technically, she has been the second-best player in this period.
Their performances in Beijing set up an intriguing matchup at the China Open, as two players showcasing impressive tennis lately along with their strong competitive spirits will play already in the fourth round.
The matchup is fascinating on paper as well: on one hand, Badosa boasts a super solid serve and strong baseline play. On the other hand, Pegula is a pure hitter who, on her best day, can compete with the best in the game.
She went toe-to-toe with Sabalenka in the US Open final, even managing to force the Belarusian to stress a bit during that match. Therefore, this promises to be a popcorn matchup that has yielded some really exciting contests in the past.
Head-to-head:
Badosa and Pegula have faced each other three times so far, and Pegula has won all three matches. This is an interesting stat because, on the surface, it suggests a matchup that should be fairly close and mostly decided by which player plays their best tennis on that day.
In all of those encounters, Pegula emerged victorious. Some of those matches were quite close, such as their most recent meeting, which took place in Cincinnati. Pegula won 6-2, 3-6, 6-3; this was the first match that went to three sets.
The previous encounter was played on clay in Charleston, where Pegula won in two closely contested sets. The first match ended in a retirement, so it didn't provide much data.
The 3-0 H2H record does make some sense. Badosa is a good hitter but not as proficient as Pegula, and in a matchup that is primarily contested from the baseline, such outcomes are likely.
Badosa can defeat players who aren't great hitters, but she usually struggles against those who are. Pegula rarely loses to players who don’t hit as well as she does, even though it can happen due to her occasionally streaky play.
| Jessica Pegula | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | H2H | 0 |
| 3 | Rank | 19 |
| 30 | Age | 26 |
| 37-11 | 2024 W/L | 32-16 |
| 432-243 | Career W/L | 356-197 |
Prediction
As history has proven, this is a matchup that, on some days, slightly favors Pegula. That will likely be the case once more, as the American should win the match. It might be close; it might be barely, but Pegula is a slight favorite and, as such, will probably win the match.
Prediction: Jessica Pegula to win in two sets.
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