The American didn't start the US Open well, as she got overpowered by Sabalenka in the opening set. She would turn things around in the second set, and also in the third set, to win her maiden Grand Slam.
Half a year earlier, Sabalenka did the same thing in Melbourne, and now they meet in the Australian city. No player impressed as much as Sabalenka did in the last ten days. She has been absolutely brutal in dispatching several solid players en route to the semi-final, where she'll now search for revenge against Gauff.
The 19-year-old was also pretty strong, but her most recent match against Marta Kostyuk proved that she's very beatable. A great player like Sabalenka is certainly good enough to win this match, but will she? That remains a question.
They've played quite a few times, and Gauff actually leads the H2H 4-2. She won the most recent match at the US Open but lost the one earlier in the year pretty easily, 6-4, 6-0. In certain conditions, Gauff is pretty vulnerable against Sabalenka.
It's mostly because she can't hang around from the baseline. At the US Open, she managed to frustrate Sabalenka enough for her to start missing and panicking. That likely won't happen again because the Belarusian looks really composed and comfortable on the court.
The conditions here suit her as well. It's a faster court than in New York, which makes her shots more difficult, including the serve and return. The court also has a lower bounce, making it tougher for Gauff to get many balls back.
The slower court and higher bounce are exactly what allowed Gauff to win in New York, and I don't think she'll do that again as she won't have that to exploit. The crowd factor might also not be there, so take Sabalenka.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in two sets.