The 2024 Cincinnati Open final will be contested between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula, with both players eyeing the prestigious WTA 1000 trophy.
This matchup is very fascinating for several reasons. There are some interesting storylines, especially for Pegula, who spent a lot of time this year away from the sport due to an injury.
Sabalenka also dealt with an injury, but her struggles have been more recent and short-lived. She injured her shoulder at the Berlin Open, which caused her to miss Wimbledon.
She returned at the Citi Open in Washington and played at the Canadian Open in Toronto as well, but neither of those performances were brilliant. However, she has been very good for much of this week and brilliant against Iga Swiatek in her most recent match.
Her overwhelming power has been at the center of everything she's done this week, but her serve has also worked really well. She avoided double faults and found a way to win matches even when she was not serving well. That will be crucial ahead of this final.
Her opponent is a player who might be enjoying the best stretch of her career. Pegula won the Canadian Open last week after a wonderful week of tennis. She continued her strong play this week to make yet another final, so she's currently on a nine-match winning streak.
She needs only one more win to lift back-to-back titles in Toronto and Cincinnati and that would be a huge success for her.
Head-to-head:
The two have played a handful of times, and both have beaten the other. In the six matches so far, Sabalenka has been better, winning four of those.
Their most recent meeting came in Montreal last year, and it's been over a year since then. Pegula won that one, which is important because they will be playing on a similar tennis court in Cincinnati.
The American won both outdoor hard-court matches, which is another factor to note. Sabalenka's wins came at the WTA Finals in 2022 and on clay.
Their previous matches show that Pegula generally does better on a faster tennis court. This makes sense to a degree because a slower court gives the Belarusian more time to unload her power, and Pegula should generally be more familiar with a faster court.
Style-wise, it will be a baseline battle. The serve will be Sabalenka's main weapon, especially if she can limit the double faults as she has done so far. However, Pegula has been hitting exceptionally well all week, so she won't be easy to overcome.
| Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | H2H | 2 |
| 3 | Rank | 6 |
| 26 | Age | 30 |
| 38-11 | 2024 W/L | 29-9 |
| 398-185 | Career W/L | 424-241 |
Prediction:
As well as Pegula played, Sabalenka's win over Iga Swiatek was just too impressive. The Belarusian looked in complete control and very confident. Her tennis also looked unplayable, and if he brings a level even remotely close to that, she will win this match relatively easily.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in two sets.
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