Jannik Sinner's outstanding results since the start of 2024 do not hide the extent to which the Italian has struggled against Carlos Alcaraz during that time.
Sinner and Alcaraz have equally split the last eight Grand Slams, utterly dominating men's tennis. Novak Djokovic winning gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics, which Sinner could not play due to illness, was the only notable break from their dominance.
Alcaraz's form has been extraordinary since the clay-court swing, reaching eight consecutive finals and winning six of them, including two Grand Slams. The 22-year-old's loss against David Goffin at the Miami Open on March 22nd was his last not in a final.
Before his current exceptional run, Alcaraz developed a reputation for being less consistent than Sinner. The loss against Goffin and to Botic van de Zandschulp at the 2024 US Open were examples of huge upsets that the Italian has not endured in the past two years.
Sinner's dominance against the rest of the ATP Tour is proven by his remarkable 107-4 record against players outside of Alcaraz since 2024 began, including 68-1 on hard courts. His only loss on that surface to players other than the Spaniard was to Andrey Rublev at the 2024 Canadian Open.
Although Alcaraz had been less consistent than Sinner against other opponents until the last few months, his overall results since the start of 2024 have been as dominant as his rival's because of his record against the four-time Grand Slam champion.
Sinner held a 4-3 winning head-to-head record against Alcaraz after beating him in the 2023 China Open semifinal. A player improving since that point usually translates into better records against their biggest rival.
Instead, Alcaraz has won seven of their last eight meetings. Sinner's only victory was a critical one in the 2025 Wimbledon final, but losing all their other matches, including all four on his favored hard courts, is a startling statistic.
Jim Courier spoke about that topic on the Tennis Channel after the US Open final. He compared the pair's rivalry to that of Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert, who met in 14 Grand Slam finals in the 1970s and 1980s. Courier noted how both women had dominant spells in that rivalry.
"I know we're going to compare these guys to the Big 3 (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer) as they go on, but the only comparison I think is apt is Martina and Chrissy. They were just meeting in final after final, and maybe Roger and Rafa had that for a while until Novak got better."
"But there were waves in Martina and Chrissy's rivalry where one of them had like six or seven wins, and then one of them would win like eight of nine. These things can change, and Jannik Sinner is not going to rest easily until he gets through there more easily. He's lost a lot of close ones to be fair to him; he's not getting blown out all the time, but obviously the numbers don't lie."
Courier's point about Sinner losing a lot of close matches to Alcaraz is a reasonable one. Four of the Italian's seven defeats since the start of 2024 have been in the deciding set, including their memorable French Open final.
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