Carlos Alcaraz's Halloween was a real nightmare as the Spaniard fell to a shock straight sets loss in the second round of the Paris Masters.
Alcaraz was beaten by Russian qualifier Roman Safiullin 6-3, 6-4, in what was his first loss in the first match of an ATP tournament this season. His early exit will have significant repercussions in the year-end No. 1 ranking.
Alcaraz was chasing Novak Djokovic for that accolade, arriving in Paris just 500 points behind. Alcaraz's best-case scenario was to try and truncate the Serbian's lead. And his worst-case scenario was to try and maintain that deficit.
But after Tuesday's costly defeat, he's staring at the possibility of the deficit growing into four digits at the end of the week. In fact, Djokovic could virtually seal the year-end No. 1 ranking by winning the title, here's why:
Why Carlos Alcaraz Is Unlikely To Finish Year-End No. 1:
Alcaraz's defeat to Safiullin means that he'll be stuck at 8,455 points, at least for the remainder of the week. Last week, he declared himself fit to play in Paris and the ATP Finals in Turin.
But after his early exit in Bercy, he could contemplate taking a late wild card in either Metz or Sofia - the two ATP 250s that round off the regular tennis season.
If he elects not to compete next week, Alcaraz can only gain a maximum of 1,500 points in Turin (as an undefeated champion), but that may not be enough if Djokovic ends up winning the Paris Masters. Djokovic has 8,955 points in the live race.
The Serb will play his first singles match on tour since the US Open final on Wednesday afternoon against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Djokovic has already added 10 points after a first-round bye. He can win 990 points during the week if he ends up hoisting the Paris title for a record-extending seventh time.
That would take his points tally to 9,945, which would translate to a gap of 1,490 points between him and Alcaraz. As stated at the top of the article, Alcaraz can only garner a maximum of 1,500 points in Turin.
So, Djokovic would essentially need just one round-robin match win at the ATP Finals, or either Alcaraz loses at least one round-robin match to seal the year-end No. 1 ranking.
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