Why Ben Shelton Could Qualify For 2023 ATP Finals After Tokyo Win

23/10/2023 04:00 | by Nurein Ahmed

After winning a maiden ATP Tour title on Sunday, Ben Shelton has put himself in contention to qualify for the prestigious ATP Finals in Turin.

It is a long shot, but not improbable as the ATP Race sheet suggests. Shelton defeated Aslan Karatsev in straight sets in the Japan Open final to land the first of what is expected to be many ATP titles. He is set for a Top 15 debut on Monday, but of relevance has inched closer to the Top 8 spots for the season finale.

Four of the eight seats have been booked, with Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Jannik Sinner all but confirming their presence at the showpiece event in Turin, Italy. Russia's Andrey Rublev is nailed on to make it five, sitting just 100 points from the cut-off mark.

From sixth to eighth, you wouldn't really hang your hat with so much confidence on the players currently occupying those places. And here's why Ben Shelton, against all the odds, could secure a place at the ATP Finals.

With Title Win In Tokyo, Shelton Leads U.S. Men In Olympics Race Qualification

Sunday, 22 October 2023

Formbook Favors Shelton

The three players occupying the last three spots in the race have been far from their best form in recent weeks, which makes it tough to call on who will qualify and who will miss out. So consistency in results and going deep at the remaining tournaments will be key.

At the moment, it doesn't look like Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, and Holger Rune are doing enough to cement their places in the top eight, and this has left the door open for at least six players including Ben Shelton who surfs into the Vienna Open next week high in confidence after winning eight of his past nine matches.

Shelton has 2,275 points, which is 835 points from Rune who holds the last ticket to Turin. That's obviously a massive gap at this stage, with just a few tournaments remaining. And the problem for Shelton, something that is not in his control, is that he's jostling with a handful of players - not just Rune.

So even if he would overtake the Dane in the coming weeks, he'll need to chase down the likes of Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, Alex de Minaur, and Tommy Paul above him. But he is the man with all the momentum heading to the crucial stretch.

Shelton Capable Of Forging Another Three-Peat

For those familiar with the Challenger Tour, you'll know Ben Shelton is no stranger to completing a three-peat. In this case, it basically means winning three titles on the trot. That's potentially what Shelton would need to do to qualify.

In November 2022, Shelton won three Challenger titles in the span of a month. He'll probably need a similar run here. He has signed up to play in Vienna, Paris Masters, and Sofia Open, which combine to offer a maximum of 1,750 points. It is an almighty task and he'll need a spectacular run of some sort and a huge slice of good fortune, and at the very least winning Vienna and Paris.

Possible Withdrawal Of One Of The Eight Qualified Men

If Shelton is incapable of making the top eight, he'll most likely need to rise as high as ninth, as that could be sufficient provided there is at least one withdrawal from one of the qualified players. At the moment, that doesn't look like it could happen.

However, the state of Carlos Alcaraz's injury is something to keep a close eye on as it could affect his participation at the ATP Finals. So the worst-case ranking for the American lefty would be ninth, which could be enough.

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