The battle for the ATP number one ranking between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will be extremely interesting in the next tuneup events before the US Open.
Let's start with Djokovic who pulled out from Toronto due to fatigue. Djokovic doesn't defend any points in this summer's hard-court swing. He wasn't allowed to travel there last year because he was unvaccinated for Covid-19. Those restrictions were lifted this year and he will fly to the United States this week. Djokovic, however, can only add up to his current points tally of 8,795 in Cincinnati.
Before the start of the Canadian Open, Alcaraz sat in top spot with 9,225 points, at least 430 points ahead of the Serb. Alcaraz lost in the second round in Montreal last year, so he is defending 10 points this week in Toronto, which he'll get back by virtue of getting a bye in the first round.
What happens If Alcaraz wins the Montreal title?
Short answer, Alcaraz keeps the number one ranking before US Open, why?
Alcaraz can earn a maximum of 990 points in Canada by winning the title, which would take his points total to 10,215. He'll establish a gap of 1,420 points between himself and Djokovic before the Cincinnati Masters, where the 23-time Grand Slam winner is set to play his first tournament on US soil in two years.
Even if Djokovic won Cincinnati and Alcaraz lost at any stage at the Western & Southern Open, the number one ranking won't change hands. Why?
Alcaraz is only defending 180 points in Cincinnati (lost in the quarterfinal). So in the scenario where Alcaraz drops all those points, he'll still maintain a 1000-plus points gap over Djokovic. The Serb can only garner a maximum of 1000 points in Cincinnati, which is the only tournament he'll play before the US Open.
What happens if Alcaraz loses early or doesn't win title in Canada?
Now this scenario could give Djokovic a shot at wrestling the number one ranking back. Alcaraz can only be so sure of top spot if he attains a 1,180 points gap between himself and Djokovic at the end of the week because he's got 180 points to defend in Cincinnati.
We're talking of ideal scenarios here, but anything could happen, and Alcaraz might not even need to win the title in both events and still keep the number one ranking before the US Open. But we'll delve into breaking down the best-case scenario for his challenger Djokovic.
The best case scenario for Djokovic is he wins Cincinnati. And then, Alcaraz doesn't win the title in Canada and loses before the quarterfinals in Cincinnati. This is the only way he can be the top seed for the US Open.
So a runner-up finish in Montreal for Alcaraz might not suffice to keep his number ranking before US Open, more so if he ends up losing before the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, provided Djokovic wins the title in Cincinnati. A runner-up finish in Toronto would get him 600 points, added to his current lead of 430 points would equal 1,030 points before Cincinnati.
So technically, Alcaraz would need to equal his result in Cincinnati to be so sure, assuming he finishes runner-up in Canada. We'll certainly get a clear picture of how the scenario would look like at the end of the Canadian Open.
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