Novak Djokovic will kickstart his title defense at this year's Australian Open as the ATP's No. 1, but he is not guaranteed to retain that position at the end of the tournament.
Djokovic has clocked 11,055 points and is defending championship points after bagging a record-extending 10th Australian Open title last season. Still, it would take a brave person to bet against him not adding to his trophy haul at the end of the fortnight.
Time and again, Djokovic has proven that, among the world's greatest inevitabilities beyond death and taxes, it is his ability to decimate the field at Melbourne Park. Roger Federer is the only other man who comes remotely close to his record there, having lifted six titles in 21 Australian Opens.
Djokovic enters this year's tournament with a cloud of uncertainty regarding his wrist, which cost Serbia dearly in the United Cup. He lost his proud unbeaten record on Australian soil after 43 matches, but he remains confident that the injury won't perturb him.
That remains to be seen, but videos of his practice sessions circulating online have been very encouraging. The Serb has been practicing at full intensity and showed no signs of discomfort.
Djokovic will drop 1,990 points (because of an earlier start date) once the tournament commences. His points tally will stand at 9,065. Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, have not played any warm-up ATP tournament and each has a chance to overtake the Serb and become No. 1 at the end of the 2024 Australian Open.
The draw for the tournament has been released, and all three players have learned their paths to the title. Alcaraz has 8,865 points and defends zero points because he did not play last year's edition. So he is in a position to gain over Djokovic.
Djokovic will need to win the trophy to be absolutely certain of keeping the No. 1 ranking for up to 413 weeks. If he stumbles in the final, which would be the first one in his career at the Australian Open, then Alcaraz would wrestle the No. 1 ranking from him by winning the title.
It is also possible that Alcaraz wouldn't need to win the title to reclaim the No. 1 ranking, but that scenario would likely require an early defeat by Djokovic, likely before the second week - something that has only happened three times in Djokovic's 18 previous trips to Melbourne. A quarterfinal by Alcaraz would suffice, for that matter.
Medvedev's task is a little bit harder as he needs to win the title and hope that Djokovic and Alcaraz lose before the semifinal stage. That way, the Russian will own 9,475 points, while Djokovic and Alcaraz would finish with 9,465 points and 9,265 points, respectively.
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