Why Joao Fonseca's withdrawal from 2025 Shanghai Masters was a mistake

Joao Fonseca's surprising decision to withdraw from the 2025 Shanghai Masters was an error of judgment on the part of him and his team.

Many were surprised when Joao Fonseca decided not to compete at the penultimate ATP Masters 1000 tournament this season. The 19-year-old is already becoming a fan favorite because of his electrifying playing style.

The memorable events at the 2025 Shanghai Masters showed he made a mistake, but the Brazilian's team could have also studied the situation before the tournament and seen how a deep run for their player might have been possible.

Everyone's chances in Shanghai were enhanced when Carlos Alcaraz withdrew from the tournament. He won the 2025 Japan Open title despite a slight ankle injury and chose to rest that problem rather than risk something more severe.

With Alcaraz not in the draw, defending champion Jannik Sinner was the overwhelming favorite to win the title. Those two players have split the last eight Grand Slams and utterly dominated men's tennis for two years.

However, Sinner retired in the deciding set of his round of 32 match against Tallon Griekspoor after suddenly cramping in the hot conditions. That left a golden opportunity for someone else to win the title.

Novak Djokovic had his best chance of 2025 to win a Masters 1000 title, but he was physically hampered against Valentin Vacherot in the semifinal, a recurring theme for the 38-year-old this season.

Vacherot, ranked outside the Top 200 before the tournament, defeated his cousin Arthur Rinderknech in the final. It was among the most incredible and heartwarming stories ever seen in tennis.

Older players like Djokovic are known to play reduced schedules to protect their bodies and focus on the most significant tournaments. By contrast, younger stars, rightly or wrongly, often play the most tournaments each season.

That caused a shock when Fonseca withdrew from the Shanghai Masters. His team said this was done to give more preparation time for the European indoor hard court tournaments that began on Monday.

Fonseca's last appearance occurred at the 2025 Laver Cup in San Francisco, which was held on an indoor hard court. Rather than go from outdoors back to indoors again, he and his team bravely decided to skip a Masters 1000 tournament.

Although it is easy to say Fonseca should have played in hindsight after how much the draw opened up in Shanghai, the next two sections outline two factors that his team could have realized before making the decision.

No one could have predicted with certainty that Sinner would retire and Alcaraz would not play at the Shanghai Masters. However, players outside the very top often have their best chance of winning significant tournaments after the US Open.

For instance, Hubert Hurkacz defeated Andrey Rublev 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 in a thrilling final at the 2023 Shanghai Masters. At last year's Paris Masters, the last Masters 1000 each season, Ugo Humbert had an unexpected run to the final, losing to Alexander Zverev.

Some players, such as Elina Svitolina, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Daria Kasatkina, and Frances Tiafoe, have all ended their 2025 seasons early after finding the grueling calendar, criticized by many, overwhelming.

Unless Fonseca hides it well, he does not seem fatigued. The teenager could have been ideally placed to take advantage of the lack of energy that many of his older colleagues on the ATP Tour are feeling.

Fonseca's team could not know precisely which players would struggle, but they could have noticed the patterns and determined that the young star had a better chance of making a statement in Shanghai than at many other tournaments.

Sinner and Djokovic were among several players who struggled in Shanghai's brutally hot and humid conditions. Vacherot winning nine matches from qualifying in that heat was incredible.

Patrick Mouratoglou, who coached Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka, says the humidity makes the Asian swing more brutal for players than anywhere else, including the US Open and the Australian Open.

Fonseca's team might have been worried about his body in that heat. However, the 2025 Argentina Open champion will need to become used to those conditions in the future by training and playing matches in Asia.

Choosing to skip the Shanghai Masters means Fonseca will be less prepared for when the Asian swing occurs in 2026. At this early stage of his career, it would probably be better for the young AP star to become as comfortable as possible in various conditions for his development.