Iga Swiatek faces major WTA Finals problem she’s never dealt with before

Iga Swiatek will play her fifth WTA Finals later this year, and this time, it might be harder for her to win the title than ever before.

Swiatek has played at the WTA Finals four times already. She made her debut in 2021 but lost two out of her three round-robin matches. In 2022, she destroyed all three of her opponents in the group stage but then lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-finals. One year later, the Pole dominated the event without losing a set, lifting her only WTA Finals title to date.

This year, she will enter the event as the second seed, which means she will certainly avoid the top-seeded Sabalenka in the round-robin stage. That, however, won't make her life in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, any easier.

In her first four appearances at the event, Swiatek always had a positive record against the rest of the field, but that won't be the case this year. She will actually be very far from it.

There will be a total of eight players competing at the 2025 WTA Finals, one of whom will be Swiatek, but she can meet a maximum of five of those players (three in the round-robin stage, one in the semi-finals, and one in the final). Out of all of those players, Swiatek has a winning record in 2025 against only one.

Despite their great rivalry in recent years, Swiatek and Sabalenka actually met only once this year. That meeting happened at the Roland Garros, where the Belarusian player won 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-0. Sabalenka is also the only player Swiatek will certainly avoid in the group stage, meaning they can meet only in the semi-finals or the final.

Early on, Swiatek used to absolutely dominate the rivalry against Coco Gauff, but that hasn't been the case lately. The young American has won the last three matches they played, including two this year.

Gauff's wins were also quite dominant, as she beat the Polish player 6-4, 6-4 at the United Cup, and then 6-1, 6-1 at the Madrid Open later in the year. Swiatek still leads the overall H2H 11-4, but those past wins seem to be irrelevant now.

Amanda Anisimova is one of the two players who have an even H2H with Swiatek this year. They first met at the Wimbledon Championships, where the Polish player memorably won 6-0, 6-0. Only a few weeks later, Anisimova got her revenge at the US Open, winning 6-4, 6-3.

Jessica Pegula is another player whom Swiatek used to dominate against. However, Pegula has won four of the last six, three of the last four, and the last two matches she has played against Swiatek. Their last meeting came in Bad Homburg this year, with Pegula winning 6-4, 7-5. The American has now won four sets in a row against the Pole.

Mirra Andreeva is one of the very few players who have a winning overall H2H against Swiatek. The Russian teenager has won two of the three matches they played, with both of those wins happening this year. Andreeva won in Dubai and then in Indian Wells.

Madison Keys is the other player who holds an even H2H with Swiatek this year. She first beat her at the Australian Open, but then lost in Madrid, despite winning the first set of that match 6-0.

The first seven players (including Swiatek) seem to be almost certain to compete in Riyadh this year. The last spot is yet to be decided, and it will be between Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina, both of which Swiatek leads the H2H against.

She beat Paolini twice this year and lost only once. Her wins came in Bad Homburg and Cincinnati, while the Italian surprisingly beat Swiatek in Wuhan, winning 6-1, 6-2.

Swiatek has the best 2025 H2H against Elena Rybakina. Despite previously trailing the Kazakhstani 2-4 in their H2H, Swiatek has won all four matches they played in 2025 (United Cup, Doha, Roland Garros, and Cincinnati), winning eight out of nine sets played.

Overall, Swiatek's 2025 H2H against the field in Riyadh will be either 4-9 or 6-8, depending on whether Rybakina or Paolini make it to the event. Apart from that, she has also lost her last match to six out of seven of her possible opponents, which certainly puts Swiatek in a weird spot ahead of this year's WTA Finals. The year-end tournament will start on November 1st.