Alcaraz Closes In On Sinner's No. 1 Rank But Overtaking Him Remains Impossible

Carlos Alcaraz's success in the last few months has significantly reduced Jannik Sinner's lead at world No. 1.

When Sinner won the 2025 Australian Open in January, he had a substantial advantage over his rivals, including Alcaraz. The task of catching the Italian seemed daunting, but the months since have allowed the Spaniard to close the gap.

Alcaraz was helped by Sinner's three-month suspension until the 2025 Italian Open. Last year's US Open winner accepted that punishment from the World Anti-Doping Agency to end his high-profile doping case.

Initially, Alcaraz could not take advantage of Sinner's absence. He did not win the Indian Wells Open or Miami Open titles, and later admitted that the pressure of having a chance to become No. 1 again impacted him.

The two-time Wimbledon winner spectacularly returned to form during the clay-court swing. He won maiden titles at the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Italian Open, beating Sinner in the final of the latter tournament.

That was followed by an extraordinary triumph over Sinner in the Roland Garros final. Alcaraz looked doomed at 3-5, 0-40 down in the fourth set, but saved three championship points before ultimately winning in a deciding set tiebreak.

Sinner's loss in the round of 16 at the Halle Open offers Alcaraz another chance to narrow the gap. The 22-year-old is already guaranteed to move closer to his rival when the new rankings are released, but by how much depends on how far Alcaraz goes at the Queen's Club Championships.

Before his Queen's Club semifinal against Roberto Bautista Agut, Alcaraz was on 9,000 points in the live rankings. That puts him 1,430 behind Sinner, who has lost 450 points after being unable to defend his 2024 Halle Open title.

If Alcaraz wins the Queen's Club Championships for a second time, that would give him another 300 points, and leave him 1,130 behind Sinner heading into the 2025 Wimbledon Championships, which starts on June 30th.

However, Alcaraz cannot overtake Sinner after Wimbledon. He will defend 2,000 points from winning a second title at SW19 last year. Therefore, not losing any points is the best the five-time Grand Slam champion can hope for.

Sinner's considerable success after last year's Wimbledon Championships will present an opportunity for Alcaraz to regain the No. 1 ranking he first secured in 2022. The fan favorite has not been at the top since the 2023 US Open.

The Italian triumphed at the US Open, ATP Finals, Cincinnati Open, and the Shanghai Masters in the closing months of 2024. He also lost a brutal three-hour final at the China Open against Alcaraz.

Aside from beating Sinner to win the title in Beijing, Alcaraz's level dropped after losing the Olympic gold medal match against Novak Djokovic. The defeat left him in tears, and he struggled to regain momentum for the rest of 2024.

Alcaraz and Sinner are the undisputed best players in the world right now after splitting the last six Grand Slams. However, Djokovic will undoubtedly believe he can win an eighth Wimbledon title and equal Roger Federer's record.