Aryna Sabalenka Guaranteed To Hang On To World No. 1 Ranking Despite Doha Loss
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Aryna Sabalenka suffered a surprising defeat in the opening round of the 2025 Qatar Open, but there is still no chance of her being overtaken as the WTA world No. 1 after the tournament is completed.
The three-time Grand Slam champion was stunned by Ekaterina Alexandrova, losing a thrilling match in a deciding set tiebreak. It was Alexandrova's fourth victory against Sabalenka but the first since the Belarusian won her first major title.
Although she understandably did not want to admit it before the tournament, Sabalenka may still be dealing with the aftereffects of being beaten by Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open final. That painful moment caused her to destroy her racket afterward.
Iga Swiatek was less than 200 points behind Sabalenka in the rankings at the start of the week. Some fans may have thought an early exit could jeopardize her spot at No. 1 if Swiatek goes far in Doha.
However, that is not the case. Sabalenka skipped the 2024 Qatar Open, meaning she did not defend any points from the tournament. When the rankings come out next week, her total will remain at the current 8956.
Swiatek is the three-time defending champion in Doha. She defeated Elena Rybakina in last year's final and has thrived in the tournament's medium-slow conditions, which allow her to execute her style perfectly.
The five-time Grand Slam champion's outstanding track record at the tournament means she cannot add any points to her current total of 8770. She must win the event again to remain at that number in next week's rankings.
Swiatek will drop many points if she exits the 2025 Qatar Open earlier than expected. For instance, a round of 32 defeat to Linda Noskova, who memorably beat her at the 2024 Australian Open, would lead to her losing 880 points and cutting her total to 7890.
The world No. 2 will defend many points in the next few months after she also won titles last year at the Indian Wells Open, Madrid Open, Italian Open, and French Open, utterly dominating the first half of 2024.
That meant the Qatar Open was a great chance for Sabalenka to create a significant lead over Swiatek in the rankings. Her inability to do that might cost her later in the season when she has more points to defend.
The worst-case scenario for Sabalenka is that she loses her No. 1 ranking after next week's 2025 Dubai Championships. Swiatek reached the semifinal of that tournament last year, while the Belarusian lost in the round of 32 to Donna Vekic.
If Swiatek were to win the Qatar Open once again, she could overtake Sabalenka by winning the Dubai Championships, depending on how her rival for the No. 1 spot performs at the same tournament.
Sabalenka's supporters will take some comfort from Swiatek's never previously winning in Dubai since the faster conditions there do not suit her game as well as in Doha. However, she was still the runner-up at the tournament in 2023.
