Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur: 2024 Barcelona Open - Preview & Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur: 2024 Barcelona Open - Preview & Prediction

by Zachary Wimer

Rafael Nadal made a winning return at the 2024 Barcelona Open, but he'll now face a much tougher challenge in Alex de Minaur.

After weeks of uncertainty, Nadal finally stepped out on the tennis courts again, and he played a pretty good match to defeat Flavio Cobolli in the first round of the Barcelona Open.

His opponent didn't play well at all, which certainly made it easier for the Spaniard, and he'll face a much tougher opponent in the next round. It's de Minaur whose improvement on clay in the past few years has been quite notable.

The Australian has had a fantastic season so far, winning a trophy in Acapulco, and he hopes to keep his level high on clay. Let's see if he can give Nadal more trouble than Cobolli did.


Nadal and de Minaur have played a few times so far, and expectedly, it was Nadal who did better. He leads the H2H 3-1, but his last win over the Australian happened in 2020 at the ATP Cup.

A lot has changed since then, as Nadal is not the player he used to be, while de Minaur is far better. After all, de Minaur's only win came in their most recent match, which happened in 2023 at the United Cup.

This one will be on clay, a surface they have never played on, but that doesn't mean we don't know what will happen.

Rafael Nadal Alex de Minaur
3 H2H 1
644 Rank 11
37 Age 25
3-1 2024 W/L 22-7
1071-221 Career W/L 224-141


Believe it or not, de Minaur has a shot here. He's been coming to Barcelona for a while now and knows the courts well. They play well for him, but Nadal is Nadal, and he's won this event a dozen times.

Still, I don't think de Minaur's hand will push 27 balls wide during a set, so I expect a much closer match and a surprise in the end.

Prediction: Alex de Minaur to win in three sets.


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