Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz: 2025 US Open - Preview & Prediction

ATP
Wednesday, 03 September 2025 at 10:43
Updated at Wednesday, 03 September 2025 at 10:45
djokovicalcaraz wimbledon23 tpn2
Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will meet once again on the tennis courts, this time in the semi-finals of the 2025 US Open.
There used to be a time when these two met in almost every important match on the ATP Tour. In recent times, their meetings have been quite limited, mostly because a new rivalry took over, the one between Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.
But thanks to the draw at this year's US Open, Djokovic and Alcaraz will meet again. The Spaniard played probably his best first five matches at a Grand Slam ever, reaching the semi-finals without losing a set.
He beat Reilly Opelka, Mattia Bellucci, Luciano Darderi, Arthur Rinderknech, and Jiri Lehecka, all without losing a single set. It's the first time in his career that he reached the semi-finals without dropping a set.
Djokovic, on the other hand, bested Learner Tien in three sets, Zachary Svajda and Cameron Norrie in four sets, Jan-Lennard Struff in three sets, and Taylor Fritz in four sets. He has already lost three sets at the event.
On top of that, Djokovic has been struggling with his health, experiencing setbacks every now and then. That means potential health issues might be in play in this match as well.

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head:

Djokovic and Alcaraz have met in eight official matches so far. Early on, it was always the young Spaniard who led the head-to-head, with the Serbian legend always just equalling the score of this rivalry.
Alcaraz won their first meeting in Madrid in 2023, but Djokovic then won at Roland Garros. The youngster then won the first Wimbledon final they played, before Djokovic triumphed in an epic Cincinnati Masters final. The 24-time Grand Slam champion then won once more that year at the ATP Finals.
Last year, the two met twice. Alcaraz first won another Wimbledon final before Djokovic bested him in a memorable final at the Paris Olympics. It was the Serbian's long-awaited win. For Alcaraz, it was a teary loss.
Their last meeting came at this year's Australian Open. The Spanish player won the first set of the match, but Djokovic was the better player after that, despite struggling with an injury, winning the match 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.
Novak DjokovicCarlos Alcaraz
5H2H3
7Rank2
38Age22
31-92024 W/L59-6
1155-231Career W/L268-62

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction:

We've seen many times before that Djokovic holds a certain mental edge over Alcaraz. It showed during their meeting at the 2023 Roland Garros when the young player struggled with cramps, but also at the Paris Olympics and at this year's Australian Open.
At the same time, it feels like the five-time Grand Slam champion's level has increased so much this year that he should be a level above Djokovic right now, as Jannik Sinner proved when he beat the Serbian in two of his three Grand Slam semi-finals this year.
Still, Djokovic will likely win a set against Alcaraz, but the Spaniard should be able to reach the final, likely awaiting his long-time rival, Jannik Sinner.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in four sets.
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