Carlos Alcaraz is not guaranteed to remain No. 1 before the US Open because Novak Djokovic is closing in on the Spaniard's hot seat ahead of the Cincinnati Masters next week.
Alcaraz knew only a title win in Canada would keep Djokovic at bay, as it would have given him a cushion of more than 1000 points in the ATP Rankings. But a shock defeat to Tommy Paul for the second year in a row means that Alcaraz extends his lead to a bridgeable 600 points before Cincinnati.
How Can Djokovic Reclaim No. 1 Ranking Before US Open
So both players are signed up for the Cincinnati Masters next week as the top two seeds. Djokovic missed Canada, so he wasn't able to eat into Alcaraz's lead at the top. But he'll have that chance in Cincinnati, where he didn't play the event last season because of Covid restrictions.
Alcaraz has 9,395 points which is 600 more than Djokovic in second place with 8,795. Alcaraz will drop 180 points (quarterfinal points from last year), while Djokovic doesn't defend any points.
So the maximum points Djokovic can get next week is 9,795 by winning his third Cincinnati title. In this scenario, he'll clinch the No. 1 ranking if Alcaraz loses before the final.
If Djokovic finishes runner-up in Cincinnati, he can only wrestle away the No. 1 ranking if Alcaraz doesn't go beyond the quarterfinals. If Alcaraz loses in the quarterfinals and Djokovic loses in the final then we could have a situation where both players are locked at 9,395 points.
To break this tie ATP uses a special criteria which still counts in Djokovic's favor in this case as it counts points from Grand Slams, and ATP Masters 1000 tournaments, and since the Spaniard missed the Australian Open which his opponent won, he doesn't really stand a chance in this tie-breaker. So Djokovic's best bet would be to win the tournament and hope Alcaraz doesn't reach the championship match.
How Alcaraz Can Remain No. 1 After Next Week
For Alcaraz, it's pretty straightforward. He doesn't depend on Djokovic to stay No. 1, so he might not need to look over the other half of the draw in Cincinnati. Alcaraz doesn't need to win the title, but if Djokovic does, then Alcaraz needs to at least make the final, which would separate him from the Serb by a mere 20 points.
If Djokovic loses before the final, then Alcaraz keeps the No. 1 ranking even without striking a ball as Djokovic would be unable to get to 9,225 points that Alcaraz will start the week with.
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