Dominic Thiem vs Sebastian Baez: 2023 Kitzbuhel Open - Preview & Prediction

Austrian wild card Dominic Thiem will face world number 72 Sebastian Baez in the final of the 2023 Kitzbuhel Open final on Saturday, August 5, 2023.

Dominic Thiem survived an absolute rollercoaster of a semifinal against Laslo Djere, saving a whopping five match points before he prevailed 6-7 7-5 7-6 in a three-hour 30-minute epic. In front of his home fans and family entourage, Thiem rolled back the years to snatch victory from the brink of defeat.

Since his return to the ATP Tour from a serious wrist injury, Thiem has been the beneficiary of some tough draws given his low ranking, and looked increasingly in a spot of bother during his matches - his confidence taking a significant hit as a result of it.

But sometimes, in tennis, a slice of luck is needed to weather through the storm and periods of uncertainty, and it looks like Thiem had that good fortune in full supply this week at his home tournament, fighting back from a set down to win a trio of three-set matches.

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Sebastian Baez, for his part, has played a solid tournament, not dropping a set until the semifinal, where he met his match in Tomas Martin Etcheverry. In the all-Argentinean clash, Baez defeated Etcheverry 7-6 3-6 6-4 to reach his second final of the season.

Head-to-head:

Dominic Thiem and Sebastian Baez have played once on the ATP Tour, and it is the Argentine who leads the head-to-head 1-0 after beating Thiem in the quarterfinals in Bastad at around this time last year. Back then, Thiem was still in the early stages of his comeback season from a wrist injury.

Prediction:

Remarkably, this is Dominic Thiem's first Tour-level final since reaching the championship match at the 2020 ATP Finals. His resilience came to the fore on Friday, saving five match points, doing so with a couple of win-or-bust forehand missiles. There was an explosion of joy once he sealed the turnaround and surely he'll believe he's got a shot on Saturday.

Thiem has been through a lot. Brutal draws and early exits sunk his confidence to new lows and in tennis, the importance of confidence cannot be overstated enough. Thiem just didn't have it and he was all over the place.

But we've seen a very different mindset this week, I would call it a winners mentality. Baez is a stoic competitor and will have the fresher legs in this final and he's as tough as they come on clay, but if Thiem can once again go in full throttle and have a raucous Austrian crowd singing his name, there'll probably be nothing stopping him from lifting the Kitzbuhel Open title, fittingly in another three setter.

Prediction: Dominic Thiem in three sets.

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