Novak Djokovic's bid to finish the season as the year-end No. 1 has received a massive boost following Carlos Alcaraz's resignation to play the Swiss Indoors in Basel.
With just 500 points separating Djokovic and Alcaraz at the top, the young Spaniard had the chance to draw level by winning next week's ATP 500 event in Basel. After speculation of Alcaraz missing the Swiss Indoors became rife, the Murcia native confirmed foot and back injuries forced him to skip the event.
Djokovic will retain the 500-point headstart in the final sprint, at the Paris Masters, which begins on October 30. Alcaraz must now win the in Bercy for the first time and hope Djokovic loses before the final for him to reclaim top spot in the ATP Race before the ATP Finals. But here's why Djokovic will now be the favorite to finish as the year-end No. 1:
Djokovic is the King of Indoor Hard Courts
Novak Djokovic has won two of the most prestigious indoor hard-court tournaments than anybody else. He has won the Paris Masters a record six times, and he's tied with Roger Federer in the overall record for the most titles at the ATP Finals, with six.
The odds are certainly stacked in his favor to finish as the year-end No. 1 as the only tournaments remaining are the Paris Masters and ATP Finals, which he's dominated over the past decade. It would take a brave man to bet against him not winning at least one of those two events.
Fully-Rested Djokovic Has Physical Advantage
Historically, Djokovic plays his best tennis at this stage of the season because he takes utmost care of his body. With his experience and wonderful coaching team, he knows when to take a break and how to utilize his time to recharge and reset.
At a time when most players suffer wear and tear on their bodies from a grueling tennis calendar, Djokovic will head to the Paris Masters fully healthy and energized. From a physical standpoint, he'll be at an advantage not just over Alcaraz, but the whole playing field.
Alcaraz's Injury Might Be Detrimental In The Long Run
Carlos Alcaraz's injury could be a lot more serious than the initial diagnosis. This is the second successive season that Alcaraz's body has broken down in the last phase of the season. This is something his coach Juan Carlos Ferrero and the physio will need to have a broad look at during the off-season.
It's doubtful Alcaraz will challenge Djokovic for the year-end No. 1 at the Paris Masters if his injury problems persist. He didn't play his best tennis during the Asian swing, losing to Jannik Sinner in the semifinals of the China Open, and the round of 16 in Shanghai, missing the chance to overtake Djokovic.
Alcaraz remains hopeful he'll play for the remainder of the season, but judging by his recent update, he doesn't want to jeopardize his chances of playing next year's Australian Open. He is in a dilemma, and this significantly helps Djokovic (not that he actually needs it) to finish as the year-end No. 1.
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