Daniil Medvedev barely pulled through in his previous match at the 2024 Australian Open, so he'll need to be careful to avoid something similar against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
It was a very complicated match for Medvedev against Emil Ruusuvuori for various reasons. He faced a very inspired opponent who was playing well, but they also played in the middle of the night since the schedule extended after some marathon matches.
In the end, the Russian prevailed, creating a 'good memory' as he explained after the match. Auger-Aliassime had a much easier time in the previous round as he won comfortably, but he, too, had to play a five-setter in Melbourne this year.
That's not going to be the case against Medvedev because the Russian has been traditionally a very tough opponent for him.
Historically, Medvedev also played really well in Melbourne, making the final two times, something the Canadian never managed to achieve.
Head-to-head:
When it comes to the H2H, they played quite a few times, and Medvedev won every single match. It's 6-0 for the Russian, including two matches last year, which Medvedev both won in straight sets.
The closest match they ever played was actually in Melbourne in 2022, which the Russian won in five sets. Auger-Aliassime was up two sets, but then as the match went on, he couldn't keep the same level, losing 7-6(4) 6-3 6-7(2) 5-7 4-6.
| Daniil Medvedev | Felix Auger-Aliassime | |
| 6 | H2H | 0 |
| 3 | Rank | 30 |
| 27 | Age | 23 |
| 2-0 | 2024 W/L | 2-1 |
| 335-136 | Career W/L | 185-124 |
Prediction:
If we get a similar match to that, then it's going to be a really good battle. Medvedev played better last year, but neither impressed with their performances this year, especially since neither played many matches.
The Russian has the clear upper hand in the matchup, so that's something to consider. He also has a playstyle that can give Auger-Aliassime a lot of problems, as he can be quite erratic at times.
The serve will be crucial for the Canadian because it's one of the few ways he can actually generate pressure. Overall, I still favor Medvedev.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win in four sets.
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