Carlos Alcaraz has been playing rock-solid tennis lately, and he’s looking to continue that against Karen Khachanov at the 2024 China Open.
Alcaraz found a strong level at the Laver Cup, where he beat Taylor Fritz in the pivotal match for Team Europe, allowing them to lift the trophy for the first time in three years.
He hadn’t been playing well in the weeks leading up to that, suffering a shocking upset loss at the US Open against Botic van de Zandschulp. The Spaniard needed to find something because he was slowly being overtaken by Jannik Sinner, who emerged as the top player in recent weeks.
Winning the US Open only solidified that for Sinner, so Alcaraz had to make a comeback. He found his form in Berlin and continued it at the China Open, recently notching his 200th career win.
Alcaraz will hope to keep that momentum going against Khachanov, who is a solid player but probably won’t prove too difficult for him if the Spaniard brings his A-game. Khachanov has a good serve and solid shots from both sides, but overall, he hasn’t been as problematic for the top players in the world.
What makes Alcaraz the heavy favorite in this match are the conditions. The higher-bouncing courts should allow him to control the match easily. He moves particularly well on the courts in Beijing, and Khachanov lacks the consistency and power to hit through him.
Unsurprisingly, Khachanov hasn’t been able to trouble Alcaraz much in their previous encounters.
Head-to-head:
They have played three times so far, and Khachanov has never won a set. The closest he got was losing 4-6, which isn't that close at all. All of their matches have been played on clay, a surface Alcaraz prefers more than the Russian.
On hard courts, there is more of a chance for Khachanov to trouble the Spaniard, but he would need a faster court. In slower and higher-bouncing conditions, such as in Beijing, it won't be as easy for him to overpower Alcaraz.
Khachanov's serve also won't be a major threat, especially because Alcaraz can just step back a few steps and unleash from the baseline, thanks to the courts playing to his strengths.
The closest match they played was in Madrid, which is a famous city because of the fast conditions there. A slower court, like in Hamburg, helped Alcaraz win 6-0, 6-2, so the matchup patterns are clear.
| Carlos Alcaraz | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | H2H | 0 |
| 3 | Rank | 27 |
| 21 | Age | 28 |
| 45-9 | 2024 W/L | 25-18 |
| 200-52 | Career W/L | 269-196 |
Prediction:
Overall, this should be a very simple match for Alcaraz. There is always a chance that he could run into some trouble by virtue of being human, but generally, this should be a straightforward win for him.
If he does win, he will be in the semi-final of the ATP 500 event, just one match away from the final, where Jannik Sinner is also expected to end up. For now, his sight is set on Khachanov, as Alcaraz hopes to keep his winning streak going.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win in two sets.
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