Andrey Rublev will contest the 2024 Madrid Open final against fellow first-time Madrid Open finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Very few people expected the Russian to find himself in the Madrid Open final because he hasn't been playing that well lately. Following the Dubai Championships fiasco, Rublev had a couple of tough weeks, but he's back now.
Wins like those over Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz certainly prove that he found his best tennis this week, and now he has a chance to win the trophy. The opponent is somebody even fewer people saw in the final, and it's Felix Auger-Aliassime, who demonstrated all of his best tennis this week.
He's served well all week and returned even better, which is more than enough to do well in conditions like these.
Head-to-head:
They have played five times so far, and Rublev has generally been better. It's not a huge surprise as the Russian has been around for longer and generally performs better.
At their peak, Auger-Aliassime might well be the better player, but he hasn't been played that well most of the time. He occasionally finds his best tennis, like he did this week, but generally, he's been struggling a lot, even this year, which has been better than most.
| Andrey Rublev | Felix Auger-Aliassime | |
| 4 | H2H | 1 |
| 8 | Rank | 35 |
| 26 | Age | 23 |
| 20-8 | 2024 W/L | 16-10 |
| 312-166 | Career W/L | 199-132 |
Prediction:
This will be a very close match, and it's going to come down to how well the Canadian serves. Rublev should have the advantage in most rallies because he has the cleaner baseline game.
Auger-Aliassime can counter that by keeping the points short and setting himself up for easy finishes. If he manages to do that consistently, he'll probably frustrate his opponent enough.
If he doesn't serve well, he risks playing Rublev into a good rhythm, and in that scenario, he'll likely lose the match.
Prediction: Andrey Rublev to win in three sets.
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