Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will vie to finish the year as the WTA's No. 1, and just 630 points separate them heading to the WTA Finals.
In the current WTA race, which determines the player with the most points accrued during the current season, it is Sabalenka who leads over the rest of the field. But having held a 1,305-point cushion over Swiatek ahead of the China Open, that lead has dropped to three digits.
Swiatek won her first WTA 1000 of 2023 in Beijing, collecting maximum points, and reducing that lead to 630 points. With just one more tournament to play, the WTA Finals in Cancun, Mexico, will settle the score between the world's top two players.
Sabalenka has tallied 8,425 points this year, winning a maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, in addition to a WTA 1000 tournament in Madrid, among her most impressive accomplishments. Swiatek, by contrast, has recorded 7,795 points, winning Roland Garros for a third time and the aforementioned WTA 1000 in Beijing.
The player who wins the WTA Finals title while going undefeated will receive 1,500 ranking points. If it is the Pole who pulls this off, she will overhaul Sabalenka's lead, provided the Belarusian doesn't reach the final. Swiatek has 7,795 points and can reach up to 9,295 points as an undefeated champion.
If Sabalenka reaches the final by winning each round-robin match and the semifinal, then she'll garner 1,080 points, taking her total to 9,505 points. Swiatek will be powerless to finish the year as the No. 1, even if she defeats Sabalenka in the final.
The best-case scenario for the 22-year-old is that the Belarusian powerhouse loses before the final. If Sabalenka is eliminated in the group stage, a runner-up result for the Pole might suffice (however, this will depend on whether Sabalenka wins any matches). This, clearly, shows it is not within Swiatek's hands.
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