Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek's battle to finish the season at No. 1 will be decided at the 2024 WTA Finals, but Sabalenka is in a stronger position heading into the tournament.
The pair have established themselves as the best players in the world during the last two seasons. That was demonstrated by their thrilling battle for the year-end No. 1 ranking they had last year.
Sabalenka ended Swiatek's 75-week run at the top after the 2023 US Open and was still ahead of the Pole before the WTA Finals that took place in Cancun last year.
However, Swiatek reclaimed the position by winning the year-end tournament, losing just one game against Jessica Pegula in the final. She also defeated Sabalenka in the semifinals.
Swiatek retained that position until this week, becoming the seventh woman in tennis history to have multiple spells of 50 weeks or more at the top of the rankings in the process.
Sabalenka was guaranteed to overtake the Pole when she drops the points she received from winning last year's WTA Finals, but the Belarusian became No. 1 this week in controversial fashion.
Both women had the points from their lowest-earning tournament removed because they did not meet the requirement of playing in six mandatory WTA-500 tournaments throughout the season.
Sabalenka only lost 10 points from losing in the second round of the Dubai Championships, but Swiatek dropped 120 points from reaching the Miami Open fourth round, allowing her rival to move to No. 1 earlier this week.
That controversial rule will hurt Swiatek again before the WTA Finals. Both women are set to be penalized for a second time. Losing 65 points is Sabalenka's punishment, but the Pole will drop a heftier 195 points from making it to the semifinal of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart.
As a result, Swiatek will start the WTA Finals on November 2nd with 7970 points, more than 1000 behind Sabalenka's total of 9016. Overtaking this year's US Open champion is a tough ask, but it is also not impossible.
However, Swiatek's fate is out of her hands. Sabalenka is guaranteed to finish as the year-end No. 1 if she wins all her matches during the round-robin stage, regardless of what happens in the semifinal and final.
The Belarusian can also afford to lose one or two round-robin matches if she still reaches the final. Winning the title would not be enough for Swiatek if her rival advances to the final.
Swiatek's faltering in the round-robin stage would simplify Sabalenka's task. One defeat for the four-time French Open winner would leave Sabalenka needing two victories, while one win is all that will be needed if Swiatek loses two round-robin contests.
The Pole's chances are slim, but they are not dead and buried. If Sabalenka wins two round-robin matches but loses in the semifinals, Swiatek can become the year-end No. 1 by retaining her WTA Finals title without losing a match.
Swiatek will only be able to afford a loss in the round-robin stage if Sabalenka only manages one victory in the round-robin stage. But the five-time Grand Slam champion must also win the tournament in that scenario.
Sabalenka undoubtedly has the advantage heading into the WTA Finals, and she would expect herself to do enough to finish 2024 as the year-end No. 1.
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