Iga Swiatek has dominated the No. 1 ranking on the WTA Tour for more than two years, but she could lose her place at the top after the 2024 Wuhan Open.
The five-time Grand Slam champion's only period away from the No. 1 spot since April 2022 was for a couple of months after the 2023 US Open before she reclaimed the mantle at the WTA Finals.
Swiatek held a significant lead at the top before the US Open, but that was reduced after Sabalenka won her first title at Flushing Meadows, overcoming Jessica Pegula in a high-quality final.
The world No. 2 was given a boost ahead of the China Open when Swiatek withdrew from the tournament. However, she could not fully capitalize, losing to Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinal in Beijing.
Swiatek had said her China Open withdrawal was for personal reasons. At that stage, it was unknown whether the Pole would play her first tournament since the US Open in Wuhan.
The four-time French Open winner confirmed she had also withdrawn from the Wuhan Open because she and her longtime coach had parted ways. Swiatek wants time to hire and work with her new coach before returning.
Sabalenka was presented with a great opportunity at the China Open, but she has a truly golden chance of becoming the world No. 1 in Wuhan because her biggest rival is absent from the tournament.
Swiatek is currently on 9,875 points, which gives her a lead of slightly over 1,000 points over Sabalenka at No. 2 in the WTA rankings. The Belarusian is on 8,716 points heading into the start of the Wuhan Open.
The problem for Swiatek is that the 1500 points she secured from winning the WTA Finals last year are dropped the week after the Wuhan Open ends, making her hopes of ending the season as No. 1 more challenging.
Sabalenka is defending 625 points from the 2023 WTA Finals. The three-time Grand Slam champion would drop to 8,091 points if she failed to win a match at the Wuhan Open, which rarely happens to her.
Swiatek pulling out of the Wuhan Open means she is guaranteed to drop 1,500 points the week after the event ends. By contrast, Sabalenka has an opportunity to become the world No. 1.
Sabalenka will become the world No. 1 the week after one week after the Wuhan Open finishes if she reaches the tournament's quarter-final. Repeating what she achieved at the China Open would be enough for the Belarusian to overtake Swiatek in the rankings.
The one comfort for the Pole is Sabalenka moving ahead after the Wuhan Open would not guarantee her the year-end No. 1 ranking. That would be decided at the WTA Finals, as it was last year when Swiatek overtook Sabalenka by winning the tournament.
Swiatek being in that position last year means she will not panic if Sabalenka becomes No. 1 after the Wuhan Open. The WTA Finals promise to be thrilling, with Swiatek and Sabalenka's race going to the wire.
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