Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens: 2024 Indian Wells Open - Preview & Prediction

Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens: 2024 Indian Wells Open - Preview & Prediction

by Zachary Wimer

Naomi Osaka has been playing really solid tennis in Indian Wells so far, but Elise Mertens will try to stop her in the third round of the WTA 1000 event.

The four-time major winner was expected to do quite well in Indian Wells, and she's doing just that. The Japanese player saw her fortunes turn in Doha with a couple of solid matches.

It was by far the best tennis she's played this year, and many assumed that she would keep improving. Fast-forward a few weeks to now, and she's truly looking pretty solid, certainly better than ever before, and she's in the third round because of that.

Next up is Mertens, a pretty sturdy and solid player who might not be a Top 10 talent, but she's good enough to beat the players she needs to beat.

Osaka can't underestimate this matchup because while she is favored and expected to win, it's not set in stone that she will.


It's been a while since they last played, as the most recent match happened in 2021. Osaka has played Mertens four times so far and won three of those. Most of the matches were pretty comfortable wins for the former world no. 1, who is the better player.

She has better weapons and that should come through in these rather slow conditions. Mertens will try to force Osaka into many mistakes but I don't think she'll succeed at it. The 26-year-old has been playing really aggressive tennis, but she hasn't really come close to beating herself yet, so I think she'll be fine.

Naomi Osaka Elise Mertens
3 H2H 1
287 Rank 28
26 Age 28
5-4 2024 W/L 9-6
268-152 Career W/L 423-248


This match will likely end up on Osaka's racquet. There will be times when she misses a couple of shots, but when we draw the final line, I think she will be quite ahead.

Prediction: Naomi Osaka to win in two sets.


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