Naomi Osaka will kick off her 2024 Paris Olympics against Angelique Kerber, and it might just be the final match the German plays before retiring.
This first-round match has several storylines. First of all, it might just be the final match of Kerber's tennis career, that is, if she loses. The German announced that the Olympics would be her final career event, which means that if she doesn't win this match, it will be marked as her final career match.
She's not favored to win the match largely because she hasn't played all too well this year, which might have contributed to her decision to retire from the sport.
Another important factor to note is that Osaka will be very excited about returning to Paris. It was on these courts earlier this year that she played her best match since coming back on the WTA Tour, nearly beating Iga Swiatek at the French Open.
She had match points in that match and blasted an incredible number of winners, but she still wasn't able to overcome a player who is the top favorite to win the gold at the Olympic Games.
Osaka also has many lingering emotions from the last Olympics, when she was greatly disappointed when playing on home soil in Japan. She's hoping that this time around, she can deliver a similar level to the one she had against Swiatek, and that type of level would put her in medal contention.
As for Kerber, this match will just be an opportunity to hopefully play competitive tennis and leave a good mark as she sails off into retirement.
Head-to-head:
It's a matchup that suits Keber because she has the better H2H score against Osaka so far. They have played six matches so far, and the German player leads 4-2. Their most recent match was played in 2022 at the Miami Open, which Osaka won comfortably 6-2, 6-3.
A lot has changed since then as they both became mothers, but Osaka is still the better player, so she is definitely far more likely to win the match. The last time Kerber beat Osaka was a long time ago, in 2018, when she was still at her peak. She's far removed from that, with a 7-14 score this year.
| Naomi Osaka | Angelique Kerber | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | H2H | 4 |
| 102 | Rank | 217 |
| 26 | Age | 36 |
| 16-13 | 2024 W/L | 7-14 |
| 281-161 | Career W/L | 680-377 |
Prediction:
Obviously, it's clear that Osaka is the player who is far more likely to win. Kerber might make it interesting if she gives it her all because this is her final career match after all.
Osaka's hitting is very clean, and if she finds a good hitting performance, she should be able to win this matchup comfortably. With all that said, she's known to overhit at times, which she needs to avoid.
Kerber will force her to hit many balls, so if she overhits, she might complicate a matchup that doesn't need to be complicated.
Prediction: Naomi Osaka to win in two sets.
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