Iga Swiatek has been playing at a really high level, but Jessica Pegula could say the same, making their quarter-final matchup at the 2024 US Open very fascinating.
Only a few players have demonstrated a level high enough to win the US Open this year. Technically, every player in the draw can win it, but some players have simply played at a higher level than others.
Swiatek is among them, even though her level hasn’t quite matched that of Aryna Sabalenka yet. The Belarusian is the top favorite, followed likely by Swiatek and then Pegula, who has also been playing at a really high level.
The American entered the event with a 9-1 record in her last ten matches, including a trophy in Toronto and a final in Cincinnati. She’s now added four more wins at the US Open, but this will be by far the toughest player she’s had to face.
It’s an interesting matchup that will likely be fought from the baseline, as neither player strays much from that style of play. Swiatek is the more consistent player from the baseline, but Pegula is a really solid hitter as well. At her best, the American can certainly keep up with some of the best, and that's why her Polish opponent expects a challenging match.
"We played here two years ago. Playing against Jessica it’s never easy. Pretty tricky game style. You have to work low on your legs and be ready for long rallies but also some intense hitting. She’s a great player so for sure it’s gonna be a challenge."
This has been a troublesome matchup for Pegula, even though she has scored wins over Swiatek. Some of those have been impressive, so at her best, the American can trouble the Polish player.
She’s rarely been able to find that level in the past, but it’s not impossible for her to do so. The most recent match between them took place last year at the WTA Finals, and it was a formidable showing from Swiatek, resulting in a 6-1, 6-0 win for the Polish player.
The last time Pegula beat Swiatek was last year in Montreal, which was a 2-1 win for the American, so it hasn't been that long since her last victory. It largely depends on how strong of a level Pegula finds on the day.
On average, Swiatek finds a higher gear, but there is a chance that Pegula will find her best tennis. They faced each other at the US Open once in the past, with the Pole emerging victorious.
| Iga Swiatek | Jessica Pegula | |
| 6 | H2H | 3 |
| 1 | Rank | 6 |
| 23 | Age | 30 |
| 54-6 | 2024 W/L | 33-10 |
| 335-72 | Career W/L | 428-242 |
Everything that’s happened in the past weeks indicates that Pegula will at least perform at a better level than usual in this matchup. The American has been in peak form and hasn’t looked in trouble this week.
She’s hitting the ball as cleanly as she ever has, and that can’t be said for Swiatek. The Polish player has been really good, but she hasn’t played at her highest level yet.
She doesn’t need to be at her best to beat Pegula, but if the American shows up with her best game, there’s a decent chance that the World No. 1 player might be in trouble.
Overall, it promises to be a close matchup, but Swiatek will likely find a way to edge out Pegula, who should at least win a set.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek to win in three sets.