Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will contest the 2024 US Open final. Both delivered great performances in the semi-final to reach the final.
The Belarusian player continued her tremendous form by beating US Open breakout star Emma Navarro in two sets. In some ways, it was both a complicated and not-so-complicated match.
Navarro found some minor solutions at times, but she was only able to extend the match a little bit. It never seemed that Sabalenka would lose the match or was in danger of losing it.
She was simply the overwhelming player once again after playing that way for the past two weeks, dating back to Cincinnati. The level has been so high that Sabalenka is widely considered to be the favorite to win the event, but another player in peak form will try to prevent that.
Pegula has been playing superb tennis recently, winning the Canadian Open, reaching the Cincinnati Open final, and now the US Open final. To secure the final, Pegula had to battle past Karolina Muchova, and she was able to do that for the second consecutive time, as they faced off at the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati as well.
Pegula is playing the tennis of her life, as she's 15-1 in her last 16 matches. Her only loss came against Sabalenka in the Cincinnati Open final, and that loss will be central to this upcoming matchup.
It showed that while she's been amazing in the past week, there is clearly a level above her, and that came from her upcoming final opponent.
Head-to-head:
The two faced each other seven times, and Sabalenka won five of those matches. Most of those matches happened on hard courts, and the score is tied on that surface, 2-2.
That's an interesting fact to remember, especially since Pegula won their only match at the US Open. It's been a while since it happened in 2020, and the Belarusian player has improved dramatically since then, but Pegula is also a better player.
Their most recent meeting at the Cincinnati Open was a well-contested match, but Sabalenka won. She was too overwhelming for the American, who tried her best but simply wasn't as sharp enough as she needed to be.
That's generally been the problem for her in this matchup. When she's sharp enough and catches Sabalenka on a bad day, she doesn't struggle that much with her power, but that rarely happens.
| Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | H2H | 2 |
| 2 | Rank | 6 |
| 26 | Age | 30 |
| 45-11 | 2024 W/L | 35-10 |
| 405-185 | Career W/L | 430-242 |
Prediction:
While they're similar in style, Sabalenka is better in almost every respect. She's the better hitter, bringing more power and consistency from the baseline, even though Pegula, on her best day, comes close.
Sabalenka has the better serve, and generally, she's been in really solid shape. After missing out on the trophy last year, the Belarusian seems determined not to make the same mistakes this time around, and she's looked amazing. While Pegula was also solid, this match does seem a bit too much for her at the moment.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in two sets.
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