Rafael Nadal will face Milos Raonic in the opening round of the 2024 Indian Wells Open in a clash of former ATP Top 10 players.
Both of these players have struggled with the same thing in recent years, and that's injuries. Raonic is far from his peak, but he's certainly good enough to play with the best, as proven by some of his recent matches.
Nadal, for the most part, played better than Raonic in 2024. It's just that he hasn't played all that much. How much can we trust a couple of those matches that he played?
Probably a lot, judging by how he played against Carlos Alcaraz recently. It was a very competitive match, so the question now is whether he can back it up against Raonic in a proper match.
Head-to-head:
Raonic didn't have much luck against Nadal in previous years, losing 8 of the 10 matches he played against him. The problem for the Canadian was Nadal's ability to create some incredible angles and move him around.
At his size, he was never a spectacular mover, and that's just a huge problem against players like Nadal. One of the ways Raonic was able to beat Nadal was by being very aggressive.
One of his wins came in Indian Wells precisely because the court is slow. On his own serve, the Canadian would get many higher bouncing shorter balls that he could turn into winners.
On return, it gave him a chance to unload more so than on other courts, and that proved the winning combination. He can use that this time around as well, but the problem is - the shots aren't there.
| Rafael Nadal | Milos Raonic | |
| 8 | H2H | 2 |
| 652 | Rank | 224 |
| 37 | Age | 33 |
| 2-1 | 2024 W/L | 2-2 |
| 1070-221 | Career W/L | 379-181 |
Prediction:
Nadal has played better tennis in 2024, and I have no worries about him passing this test. The serve will be tough to deal with for him, but Raonic will struggle to keep up once a rally develops. He's been nowhere near his peak days.
Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in two sets.
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