Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur: 2024 Madrid Open - Preview & Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur: 2024 Madrid Open - Preview & Prediction

by Zachary Wimer

For the second consecutive week Rafael Nadal will take on Alex de Minaur, as they will meet at the 2024 Madrid Open.

The Spaniard made a winning start at the Madrid Open, besting a rising talent, Darwin Blanch, in two sets. The same thing happened last week in Barcelona when he bested another rising talent, Flavio Cobolli, in two sets.

What followed in Barcelona was a match against de Minaur, which Nadal lost. What will follow in Madrid is, well, a match against de Minaur that Nadal might lose—or not.

It will be de Minaur's first match at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Madrid as it's a second-round match, and Nadal will try to find something extra this time around.


After last week's match, de Minaur and Nadal have played a total of five times. The Spaniard still leads the H2H 3-2, but there is a pretty good chance that they will be tied at 3-3 after this meeting.

Last week's match was a solid effort from the 22-time major winner, but it looked like he never had the thought that he could win it. It was evident early on that the Australian was in control of that match, and ultimately, he was able to win in two sets, 7-5, 6-1.

This match being played in Madrid won't really help Nadal all that much because he prefers the conditions in Barcelona vastly more.

Rafael Nadal Alex de Minaur
3 H2H 2
512 Rank 11
37 Age 25
4-2 2024 W/L 23-8
1072-222 Career W/L 225-142


The ball flies a lot quicker in Madrid, which can be devastating if Nadal's forehand is on point. However, it will also give de Minaur more chances to put pressure on Nadal.

He already did a great job with that last week, and he'll have an even better chance to do so again. The other part of the equation is the Australian's fitness, which is vastly better than Nadal's at this point.

One X-factor could be Nadal having one more match under his belt but I don't think that will be enough.

Prediction: Alex de Minaur to win in two sets.


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