Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will face off for a spot in the 2024 Cincinnati Open final, and due to their strength, it's a final before the actual final.
The Polish player is the reigning number one, while Sabalenka was picked by many as the player most likely to dethrone as number one before this season. The Belarusian started really well by winning the Australian Open but struggled to keep that level after that.
Swiatek has generally outplayed both her and the rest of the WTA Tour this year. She has just been far more consistent and healthy, unlike her upcoming semi-final opponent in Cincinnati, who recently struggled with a shoulder injury.
Both have done well so far in Cincinnati. Sabalenka bested Liudmila Samsonova in two sets to reach the semi-final, while Swiatek struggled against Mirra Andreeva, but ultimately bested her in three sets.
That's why this match is going to be so interesting. On the one hand, there is Swiatek, who is amazing but does not play her best. While on the other hand, Sabalenka has been playing well lately in conditions that could favor her a bit more. The reason why is the power she brings.
Their previous matchups show an interesting trend. The faster the conditions, the better the Belarusian does. Her power is her only advantage against Swiatek, and the Polish player has shown herself to be quite vulnerable to that.
If the conditions slow down a little bit, giving her a better chance of countering that power, then the World No. 1 player tends to outplay Sabalenka, as she's a more consistent hitter.
They've played 11 matches so far, and Swiatek has won 8 of them. The reason is relatively simple: consistency. She's just the more consistent hitter, which matters a lot.
Sabalenka hits a lot of winners, but she also makes a lot of unforced errors. On the other hand, the Pole has historically been able to avoid the mistakes unless she plays on a court that just allows Sabalenka to overwhelm her.
Another factor that helps is that 6 of their 11 matches were played on clay, including the last two, which Swiatek won. She's one of the best clay players of all time, not just of this generation.
That being said, this matchup in Cincinnati is likely to favor Sabalenka more.
| Iga Swiatek | Aryna Sabalenka | |
| 8 | H2H | 3 |
| 1 | Rank | 3 |
| 23 | Age | 26 |
| 50-5 | 2024 W/L | 37-11 |
| 331-71 | Career W/L | 397-185 |
The problem with Swiatek's game right now is that it's beatable. She has shown vulnerability so far this week, but Sabalenka was beaten twice comfortably in the past few weeks.
Still, the x-factor will be Sabalenka's serve because if she can serve well and put a lot of pressure on Swiatek, she can certainly do some damage. Swiatek's win is far more likely, though.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek to win in two sets.