Reigning US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka will have to go through Madison Keys if she hopes to find herself in the next round of the 2024 China Open.
Sabalenka's first event since winning the US Open is the China Open. She didn’t play at the event last year when she made the final at Flushing Meadows, but this time around, she made the choice to keep it going, and so far, it's been going well for her.
She played two matches at the WTA 1000 event, and both of them were easy wins for the Belarusian player. Her dominance has been looking very similar to what it looked like at the US Open, and it's no wonder she's considered the top favorite to win the event.
Iga Swiatek withdrew from the tournament, and with her absence, she's essentially the highest-ranked player left. To get to the next round, Sabalenka will have to go through Keys.
The American is eager to snap Sabalenka's 14-match winning streak, and she's capable of it. She is a player who can play some amazing tennis at her best, but she can be very streaky, too.
There is a wide range of what she's capable of producing on a tennis court, and anything but the best will see her lose quite easily. She's known for finding her best tennis against some of the best in the world, which probably comes down to motivation.
When she motivates herself, she's extremely good, so she should produce a decent effort against the top seed. Her form has been good so far, with two notable wins at the event.
Head-to-head:
Sabalenka is by far the toughest opponent Keys will face, but she was able to play her close in the past, so it's not impossible for her to win. The last time they played was at last year's US Open, which was a close match.
Sabalenka won in three sets, but she lost the opening set 0-6. Overall, it's a matchup that has largely favored Sabalenka as she won three of the four matches they played.
The only match Keys won was on grass in 2021, and Sabalenka has been a far better player since then. Stylistically, it's a simple matchup. Both are aggressive baseliners, and they will take turns hitting winners and unforced errors.
The player who does it better will ultimately win, and it will likely be Sabalenka because she's arguably the best at this type of tennis. There is always a chance that Keys plays her best, but if she doesn't, there might not be a way for her to win this match.
| Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | H2H | 1 |
| 2 | Rank | 24 |
| 26 | Age | 29 |
| 48-11 | 2024 W/L | 24-10 |
| 408-185 | Career W/L | 384-217 |
Prediction:
The Belarusian is on a 14-match winning streak, beating some of the best players in the world along the way. The last time she lost was against Amanda Anisimova, and while Keys is a very similar player to Anisimova, she's streaky like her compatriot, too.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in two sets.
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