With headline-grabbing news that Rafael Nadal will make his tennis comeback at the 2024 Brisbane International, it is time to take the scratchpad and assess his prospects on his return.
Nadal is building up for the Australian Open next year by playing in Brisbane in what will be his second-ever visit to the Queensland state. Having recovered from a career-threatening hip surgery, the Spaniard deems his level sufficient to be competitive next season.
Throughout his career, Nadal has been the epitome of grit and perseverance. To him, every point is a match point, and he plays it like his life depends on it. It remains a mystery how long he will play on under the current circumstances, but no one doubts his tenacity on a tennis court.
As such, giving a closer look at Nadal's results pre-Australian Open should give his fans plenty of optimism. He has won two of his 22 Grand Slams at the Australian Open. It's been the one Slam where Nadal has suffered plenty of heartbreaks in his career.
A handful of near-losses in finals, retirements from crucial matches, and not to forget last year's detrimental defeat to Mackenzie McDonald. For Nadal, getting some matches under his belt before the Australian Open in 2024 is critical.
Nadal is not heading to Melbourne to make up the numbers but will vie to win a Grand Slam. He has played six finals at the Australian Open in his career, and in those years, he played at least one warm-up tournament (ATP event) on five occasions - the exception being in 2019.
Playing well at these warm-up events is an indication that Nadal is destined to do well at the Australian Open. Historically, that has been the case, using the sampled data from the six finals Nadal has played in Melbourne, he won a warm-up tournament on two occasions (2014 Doha and 2022 Melbourne Summer Set 1).
He also made the quarterfinals in 2009 in Doha, which was played at the start of the year. That year, he won the Australian Open, beating Roger Federer in the final. Nadal made the semis in 2012 in Doha, but this time succumbed to a five-set defeat to Novak Djokovic a few weeks later.
Nadal's only trip to Brisbane was in 2017. Incidentally, he was also returning from a long layoff, which mirrors his current state. He reached the quarterfinals there, and a fortnight later, he would contest the Australian Open final again.
His most recent pre-Australian Open tournament was at the United Cup in 2023, where he lost his two singles matches, but he did have a memorable Australian summer 12 months earlier when he won the Melbourne Summer Set 1 - a tournament that catalyzed his second Australian Open success in 2022.
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