Holger Rune will look for a fourth-round berth in Indian Wells, but he'll need to beat Lorenzo Musetti to go through.
The Italian was quite lucky to find himself in this third round because he was on the verge of defeat against Denis Shapovalov. It was a very interesting match between them, as Musetti won the opening set only to lose the second set.
He had a major chance to break early in the final set but missed it. A break for Shapovalov put the Italian in a very tough spot, but he rallied to beat the very erratic Canadian, who had 12 double faults.
This match against Rune promises to be a different beast because the Danish player has looked solid in the desert in the past. The one thing Musetti has going for him is that Rune hadn't played a match at the first ATP Masters 1000 event of the year so far, as Raonic withdrew before their second-round matchup, and he had a first-round bye.
Head-to-head:
Even without that, Rune has some things to lean on. Their only previous match was a pretty solid win for him, and it was on grass. Rune is far more comfortable on a hard court, though this slower variation actually suits the Italian more so than any of the faster courts.
| Holger Rune | Lorenzo Musetti | |
| 1 | H2H | 0 |
| 7 | Rank | 26 |
| 20 | Age | 22 |
| 11-5 | 2024 W/L | 5-7 |
| 105-67 | Career W/L | 97-90 |
Prediction:
What's important to note is the huge difference in their weapons. Musetti has a solid forehand and backhand, but neither has much power. It's more about precision and finesse with him, and that's not going to cut it against Rune.
The Danish superstar is likely to unleash his aggressive and attacking shots against him, and sooner or later, he will simply overpower him. Serving well would be a benefit for Rune, though not a necessity. In short, Musetti has no shot.
Prediction: Holger Rune to win in two sets.
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