Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are locked in a tight battle in the race to finish as the 2023 year-end No. 1.
Djokovic, 36, leads 20-year-old Alcaraz by a mere 500 points in the ATP Race ahead of the final sprint to the finish line. In this article, we shall dissect the possible scenarios for both players and analyze who has the best chance of finishing the year as the ATP's kingpin.
Analyzing Djokovic's Chances Of Finishing As 2023 Year-End No. 1:
The ATP Race is an entity in itself and not to be confused with the ATP Rankings. In the race, only points accumulated during the course of the season are compiled, and the player who finishes with more points than any other player will be declared as the ATP year-end No. 1.
Currently, Djokovic and Alcaraz have the honor of winning this coveted title, which is usually presented to the winner at the ATP Finals. Djokovic has 8,945 points and will play two ATP events before the season ends, those being the Paris Masters and the season finale in Turin.
Djokovic can earn a maximum of 2,500 points by winning Bercy for a seventh time and the ATP Finals (by going undefeated), incidentally for a seventh time, breaking a two-man tie with Federer. If that happens, he'll undoubtedly finish as the year-end No. 1 for the eighth time, with a points total of 11,445.
If Djokovic doesn't win both events but manages at least a runner-up finish in both (assuming he wins every round-robin match at the ATP Finals), he'll attain a points total of 10,545. This is unlikely to be sufficient to keep his spot at the top, If Alcaraz wins in Basel and the Paris Masters, and reaches the championship match at the ATP Finals.
Analyzing Alcaraz's Chances Of Finishing As 2023 Year-End No. 1:
Last year Alcaraz became the youngest player to finish the season as the No. 1 for the first time in his career. He can still have the final say this time despite entering the crucial phase in second place. But, his participation at the Swiss Indoors could prove decisive in the grand scheme of things.
Alcaraz has 8,445 points in the race. Should Alcaraz pull out, then, like Djokovic, he'll be after 2,500 points instead of 3,000. But assuming he plays in Basel (which is his plan for now), Alcaraz can take his points tally to 8,945 by winning the tournament. That puts him level with Djokovic.
The fun part is that Djokovic and Alcaraz will be in opposite halves of the draw in Paris and the group stages at the ATP Finals. So they are only going to meet in the final in Bercy, and in the semifinals of the ATP Finals at the earliest.
Alcaraz will just need to better Djokovic's result in that case. That means, if Djokovic reached the final in Paris, Alcaraz would need to win the tournament (the champion in Paris earns 1000 points, the runner-up 600 points).
Alcaraz would then need to reach the ATP Finals championship match and hope Djokovic loses at least one round-robin match to be certain of finishing as No. 1. Do not rule out a one-match shootout in the final match in Turin to determine who finishes as World No. 1, akin to London 2016 between Murray and Djokovic.
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