Some believe Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner's rivalry will develop into one of the best in tennis history, but one of Roger Federer's former coaches does not think Alcaraz is the most likely to threaten the world No. 1 at the ATP Finals.
As always, the ATP Finals will be played on an indoor hard court. Sinner has the advantage of playing on home soil since the 2024 edition of the year-end tournament is set to take place in Turin.
Novak Djokovic defeated Sinner and Alcaraz at last year's ATP Finals. He overcame the Spaniard in the semifinal before beating Sinner in the final to win a record seventh title.
Both Sinner and Alcaraz have made significant improvements in 2024, The Italian won his first Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and the US Open, while Alcaraz secured the French Open and his second Wimbledon title.
Interestingly, the pair's first-ever meeting came on an indoor hardcourt at the 2021 Paris Masters. Alcaraz prevailed 7-6, 7-5 to begin a rivalry that has produced several outstanding matches.
The five-set 2022 US Open quarterfinal between Sinner and Alcaraz was one of the greatest contests ever played at Flushing Meadows. After saving a match point, the two-time Wimbledon champion triumphed.
All four matches the two have played in 2024 so far went to a deciding set, including one of the most dramatic finals of the season at the China Open. Alcaraz eventually outlasted Sinner after over three hours on the court.
However, the young duo have not met on an indoor court since their first match at the Paris Masters nearly three years ago. That would create an interesting dynamic if they met at the ATP Finals.
Despite overcoming Sinner at the Paris Masters in 2021, Sinner has achieved more on indoor hardcourts throughout his career, winning six of his 17 ATP titles in those conditions.
By contrast, none of Alcaraz's 21 ATP finals have come at indoor tournaments. That means the Spaniard still needs to prove his outstanding tennis at outdoor events can be repeated indoors.
Federer's former coach, Ivan Ljubicic, told Sky Sports Italy that Alcaraz has yet to convince him on indoor hard courts and believes two-time ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev is more likely to trouble Sinner this year in Turin.
"Yes, for me, he (Sinner) is the dark horse. Also because Alcaraz still has to convince me on indoor courts. He has a very high level on hard court, but even in Turin last year, he struggled a lot on indoor courts, especially from a mental perspective. Let’s see if that changes this year. If we want to look for someone closer to Jannik, I would say Zverev."
If Alcaraz's struggles on indoor hard courts continue, it will give Zverev an opportunity to overtake the Spaniard and finish the season as the world No. 2. The two-time Grand Slam runner-up will trail Alcaraz by 315 points when the new rankings come out next week.
Neither man can overtake Sinner at No. 1 before the end of 2024. The Italian became the quickest man to secure the year-end No. 1 ranking since Novak Djokovic in 2015.
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