Iga Swiatek's advantage in the race to finish the year as world No. 1 could be significantly reduced after she withdrew from the 2024 China Open.
Swiatek's dominance of the No. 1 ranking on the WTA Tour has been incredible. Aside from a brief spell after last year's US Open, she has been at the top of the rankings constantly since April 2022.
The scale of Swiatek's domination in the last two and a half years is shown by her tying Ash Barty at 7th on the all-time list for weeks at No. 1, an incredible achievement for a woman who is still just 23 years old.
Aryna Sabalenka made a dent in the Pole's lead at the top by winning the US Open. Swiatek's defeat to Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinal meant Sabalenka received significantly more points for her efforts at Flushing Meadows.
Although the world No. 2 moved closer to Swiatek with her efforts in New York, she is still over 2,000 points behind the four-time French champion. That seems like a comfortable lead at first glance.
However, the lead may not be as formidable as it seems. Swiatek's withdrawal from the China Open in Beijing means she is guaranteed to lose points after the two-week event is completed.
Sabalenka, who is not defending many points during this year's Asian swing, has an ideal opportunity to gain significant ground on the world No. 1 if she makes a run to the title in the Chinese capital.
If she wins the China Open, the US Open champion will move to 9,501 points. That would put her just 284 points behind Swiatek, who is guaranteed to have 9,785 points because of her withdrawal.
It is unclear whether Swiatek will play at the Wuhan Open immediately following the Beijing tournament. Not competing at that WTA 1000 event could give Sabalenka a chance to become the world No. 1.
Neither Swiatek nor Sabalenka are scheduled to play any further tournaments until the WTA Finals in November after the Wuhan Open, and the Pole has far more points to defend than the world No. 2.
Swiatek won the China Open last year, and she will lose the 1000 points she secured in Beijing the week after the Wuhan Open is completed if she does not play at the final WTA 1000 tournament of the season.
That would put Swiatek on 9,785 points. If Sabalenka had gained enough points from her tournaments in Beijing and Wuhan, she would have overtaken the five-time Grand Slam champion at No. 1 in the WTA rankings.
It is important to emphasize that Swiatek's participation in the Wuhan Open is uncertain. Her involvement could be the difference between Sabalenka overtaking her or staying at No. 2.
The two-time Australian Open winner could still have a chance to reach No. 1 after the WTA Finals anyway. Swiatek also won that event last year and could drop 1500 points if she does not play at the tournament.
The race between Swiatek, who chose not to represent Poland at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals, and Sabalenka could go down to the wire.
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