Naomi Osaka vs Caroline Garcia: 2024 Australian Open - Preview & Prediction

11/01/2024 20:45 | by Zachary Wimer

The last time Naomi Osaka played at the Australian Open was back in 2022, and it was a very good run, and she will want to replicate that in 2024, starting against Caroline Garcia.

Naomi Osaka is a two-time Australian Open champion, winning the event in 2019 and 2021. It's been a traditionally really strong event for her, allowing her to utilize her powerful serve and precise shots to beat opponents.

Both winning runs were impressive and included some big names along the way, such as Serena Willaims, whom Osaka bested in 2021 in the semi-final 6-3 6-4. She's nowhere near that form but could rediscover it at any moment. Another equally streaky player is Caroline Garcia.

One of the best players in the world at her peak, Garcia hasn't been close to that in a while. Australian Open has never been the best event for her, with the fourth round being her best run, and it happened last year. Can she find something similar this year? We shall see.

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Head-to-head:

Their only recent matchup actually happened right here in Melbourne, as they faced each other in the second round of the 2021 Australian Open. The Japanese player won that match easily, but that was peak Osaka, and she's not at that level right now.

In some ways, they're about on the same level as what we have seen so far. Both played this year, with Garcia scoring some good wins at the United Cup while Osaka won her first match back before throwing away a win against Karolina Pliskova.

Prediction:

Stylistically, there are a lot of things backing Osaka here, but there are caveats. The serve will be crucial for her because Garcia will attack any slower and weaker serve. She must serve on a decent level to avoid a loss.

Baseline play is another. Garcia will hit many winners and a lot of unforced errors, so the more stable you play her, the better chance you'll have. That said, I think she'll pull through due to familiarity.

Prediction: Naomi Osaka to win in three sets.

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