Iga Swiatek vs Sofia Kenin: 2024 Australian Open - Preview & Prediction

11/01/2024 11:45 | by Zachary Wimer

A former Australian Open champion in Sofia Kenin takes on a likely future Australian Open champion in Iga Swiatek, so who gets the win?

The 2024 Australian Open is days away, and thanks to the magic of draws, we know who will play who. In the case of the public's favourite, Iga Swiatek, it will be former Aussie Open champion Sofia Kenin, and that's a wonderful matchup.

It's a wonderful matchup because Kenin, while still not at her peak, has been playing really solid tennis recently. Let's look at her peak career performance, which happened right here in Melbourne.

It was January of 2020 and Kenin smashed Martina Trevisan 6-2 6-4, Ann Li 6-1 6-3, Shuai Zhang 7-5 7-6(7), Coco Gauff 6-7(5) 6-3 6-0, Ons Jabeur 6-4 6-4, and Ashleigh Barty 7-6(5) 7-5 en route to the final.

She then outplayed Garbine Muguruza in the final 4-6 6-2 6-2, winning her maiden Grand Slam final. She never found that level again but also dealt with plenty of injuries, which contributed to that.

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Fast forward to now, January of 2024, and Kenin has looked good. She won all three of her matches (Caroline Garcia, Sorana Cirstea, Aryna Sabalenka) at the World Tennis League and added more wins on Australian soil, so she won't be a pushover.

Swiatek will certainly not be a pushover, as she's widely considered the biggest favourite for the event. Her history in Melbourne is pretty good, with a second-round appearance in 2019, a 4th round in 2020, a fourth round in 2021, a semifinal in 2022, and a fourth round in 2022. Combine that with a 5-0 start in singles so far in 2024, and you get the idea why she's the favourite.

Head-to-head:

Another thing that's a huge bonus for the Polish player is the only match they played a few years ago. It happened at the 2020 Roland Garros, where Kenin made a run to the final. It was the first Roland Garros win for Swiatek, who demolished everybody that year.

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It was Emma Raducanu's run before she did at the US Open as Swiatek smashed Marketa Vondrosova 6-1 6-2, Su-Wei Hsieh 6-1 6-4 Eugenie Bouchard, 6-3 6-2, Simona Halep 6-1 6-2, Martina Trevisan 6-3 6-1, Nadia Podoroska 6-2 6-1, and finally Sofia Kenin 6-4 6-1 in the final.

Prediction:

So besides beating Trevisan en route to their maiden Grand Slam final, Kenin and Swiatek have an aggressive baseline playstyle in common. Swiatek is far better at it, and it's the primary reason you should back her here.

She outhit her back on clay a few years ago when Kenin was at her peak, and she's not at her peak right now. She's good but simply not good enough for the world number one.

Prediction: Iga Swiatek to win in two sets.

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