Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will clash in the most high-profile match of this year's Madrid Open to date, as a place in the final is at stake.
This is about as good as it gets when it comes to a semi-final. We have two very good players who put together really strong weeks and are fighting for a spot in the final.
Rybakina has been quite unchallenged so far but barely survived a really tough matchup with compatriot Yulia Putintseva. It's a tough matchup for her generally, but she was able to rise above all of that and win.
The opposite is true for Sabalenka, who had a rough first match, barely pulling through, but then has looked better and better with every match. The way she handled Mirra Andreeva was certainly impressive as the Russian was playing really solid tennis.
This is obviously a matchup we've seen before, and not once, either. The Belarusian has been the better player, but only just. They player 10 matches overall, though two of them were exhibition matches. If we remove those, then Sabalenka leads the H2H 5-3.
The most recent meeting was played earlier this year in Brisbane, and Rybakina won 6-0, 6-3. What's particularly interesting is that this will be their first match on clay, and it comes on a clay court, which both likely prefer to others.
| Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina | |
| 5 | H2H | 3 |
| 2 | Rank | 4 |
| 25 | Age | 24 |
| 19-5 | 2024 W/L | 30-4 |
| 379-179 | Career W/L | 319-136 |
Sabalenka is a two-time Madrid Open champion, so we can safely say that this is her favourite clay event. Rybakina had some moments in Madrid, but this is by far her best run.
She won in Stuttgart last week, so she's in great form right now. I think Rybakina will continue to play well but I see Sabalenka winning this match. Madrid is just her event.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in two sets.